After a promising post-season run which saw Minnesota upset Colorado in seven games and challenge Chicago until overtime off game six before surrendering, the Wild entered the 2014-15 season with hope for improvement over an pleasantly unexpected season. While the goaltending carousel would seem to settle down, the team was looking forward to building on their success and competing with the top teams in the toughest division in hockey.
But the current season did not start out well. While St. Louis, Chicago and Nashville were piling up wins, vaulting their place at the top of the heap, Minnesota was winning once for about every two to three games from the division leaders. After a 7-2 road loss to Pittsburgh and holding an 18-19-5 record and a bottom spot in the division, Minnesota General Manager made a trade.
To help settle a rotating goalie situation where Darcy Kuemper and Niklas Backstrom were showing they were not good enough, Fletcher acquired Devan Dubnyk (at the time 9-5-2 in 19 games, 16 started, with a 3.16 goals against average and a 0.904 save percentage) from the crowded Arizona crease and into a spot where the goaltending spot was up for grabs. What they gained is a story for the ages.
Armed with a renewed look on playing the position where he follows the play with his head instead of just his eyes (trust me, as a goalie, this is working for many of us, even in the recreational leagues), he took to the crease. Since acquired, Dubnyk has posted a 27-9-2 record in 39 games started with a 1.79 goals against average and a 0.936 save percentage).
Dubnyk’s play has propelled him into the Hart Trophy conversation for the league’s Most Valuable Player. It has also made the Wild one of the most dangerous teams in the NHL Playoffs this Spring. Trending to finish the season 29 points behind their first-round opponent at the time of the trade, Minnesota closed to finish with 100 points to St. Louis’ 109. And a deeper dig into the numbers of Minnesota’s play reveals a solid team, top to bottom, who will give St. Louis fits in their opening series battle.
Keeping in mind the slow start for Minnesota, they rank 12th in goals scored per game at 2.77. Zach Parise leads the way with 33 goals in 74 games. Nino Niederreiter (24 goals), Thomas Vanek (21 goals), Jason Zucker (21 goals) and Jason Pomminville (18 goals) round out the top five spread across the top two lines.Respond to this post
The Wild rank in the middle of the pack, 13th, in shots per game at 30.8 and when they outshoot an opponent; they still only win 51.9% of the time, good for 17th in the league.
On the blue line, Marco Scandella has scored 11 goals and chipped in 23 assists for 34 points and a +8 rating.   Big minutes player Ryan Suter has provided 2 goals and 36 assists or 38 points and a +2, but his best number is the more than 29 minutes of ice time he averaged during 77 games this season.
In goal, the Wild are 6th in goals against at 2.42, in a season split among three goaltenders, but Dubnyk playing nearly have the games. A key characteristic in Minnesota’s play is reducing shots and they do well, trailing just Los Angeles, St. Louis and Carolina allowing 27.6 shots per game. When the Wild allow more shots than they take, they have to top rank in the league, winning 66.7% of their games.
Their ratio of goals scored and allowed during 5-on-5 play is 1.14, good for 9th overall and a key indicator of how teams play when at full strength. Minnesota’s special teams are a mixed bag. They rank near the bottom at 28th place with a 15.8% conversion rate on the power play, but they have the top spot on the penalty kill surviving 86.3% of the time.
The game can be impacted at any time for various reasons and the Wild seem to have formed a pattern as to how their games go this season. Scoring first is key and Minnesota wins the game when netting the first goal 77.8% of the time, 5th overall. Puck control is also critical and the Wild suffer here at 15th overall, winning the draw, 49.9% of the time.
If they trail heading into the first intermission, they only win 29.7% of the time, 21st overall. When they take the lead at the first break, they win 84.4% of their games, ranking 6th. If they take that lead into the second intermission, they win 87.5% of the time, good for 9th overall.
Despite Dubnyk’s heroics which have propelled Minnesota into the playoffs, the Wild will have their hands full unless they can get some scoring on rookie goalie Jake Allen, the game one starter for St. Louis.
Game one is set for Thursday, April 16th at 8:30 Central Time in St. Louis and the Scottrade Center.
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