In an effort to build a team ready for the NHL post-season, the St. Louis Blues have completed stage one. Beginning in early September, the challenges and battles which lasted more than seven months have led to a division championship, their ninth in team history and first since the 2012-12 season.
Their record of 51-24-7 for 109 points tied them with Anaheim for the Western conference’s best record, falling to second on a tie-breaker as determined by regulation plus overtime wins. A late-season run of winning five of their last six games propelled the Blues in the standings ahead of Nashville and Chicago, two formidable teams who will battle against each other in the opening round.
Last season’s final six games were losses, dropping St. Louis out of the top spot on the eve of the postseason and into a battle with Chicago, one they lost in six games despite having home-ice advantage. Injuries felled the Blues at the close of last season and in that opening round against Chicago, they were bounced around in ways which clearly showed the Blackhawks were the better team.
In stage two of this Blues season, things are a little different. Like last season, the Blues are guaranteed home ice in the first round, but also, should they advance, they get home ice in the second round as well. St. Louis’ seed in the standings also affords them a different caliber opponent. While any team who qualifies for the playoffs is deserving to be there, a match-up against the Minnesota Wild just seems like a foe the Blues can handle more so than Chicago.
What is different this season about the Blues is the emergence of a balanced scoring attack, three lines with solid offensive threats with a fourth checking line which can chip in the occasional goal here and there. The offense is supported by a mobile, puck-moving defense which, at the trade deadline, got bigger and nastier, something the Blues lacked in prior years. Add to it, capable, if not, stellar goaltending and the Blues might be the most dangerous club in the post season.
The numbers are pretty impressive relative to the rest of the league. The Blues rank 5th in goals scored per game at 2.92. Vladimir Tarasenko leads the way with 37 goals in 77 games. Jaden Schwartz (28 goals), David Backes (26 goals) and Alexander Steen (24 goals) round out the top four spread across the top three lines. Recently, T.J. Oshie (19 goals), Paul Stastny (16 goals), Jori Lehtera (14 goals) and Dmitrij Jaskin (13 goals) have added some more punch to the attack.
The Blues rank 11th in shots per game at 30.9 and when they outshoot an opponent; they win 66% of the time, tops in the league.
Recently, the Blues have been settling into some new line combinations, partly necessitated by injuries to Tarasenko and Steen at the end of March. When game one begins, expect to see Stastny centering a line of Schwartz and Oshie; Jori Lehtera between Steen and Tarasenko; Backes in the middle of Patrik Berglund and Dmitrij Jaskin and then the checking line of Marcel Goc at center between bruisers Steve Ott and Ryan Reaves.
On the blue line, All-Star defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk leads the corps scoring 8 goals and 36 assists for 44 points and a +19 rating. Despite missing 26 games due to an abdominal injury after the all-star break, he still leads the defense in points and plus/minus rating. Alex Pietrangelo remains a solid puck-mover and despite the -2 rating, has contributed offensively with 7 goals and 39 assists for 46 points.
Veteran Barret Jackman will be paired with Shattenkirk while Carl Gunnarsson will join Pietrangelo. The third pairing will be Jay Bouwmeester and Zbynek Michalek, a beefy, nasty backliner added at the trade deadline. Expect the size of Robert Bortuzzo, another trade deadline addition, to see time against Minnesota as well.
In goal, the Blues are 5th in goals against at 2.40, in a season split among three goaltenders, one of which being the retired feature Hall-of-famer, Martin Brodeur. St. Louis ranked 3rd last year with 2.29 goals allowed per game, but this year, they have still been incredibly solid and downright exceptional down the stretch. A hallmark of the Blues system, they rank 2nd, only to the defending champion Los Angeles Kings, in shots against with 27.2. When the Blues get outshot, though, they win 55.65 of the time, good for 10th overall.
Veteran Brian Elliott has appeared in 46 games, starting 45 of them and delivering a record of 26-14-3 with a 2.26 goals against average, a 0.917 save percentage and 5 shutouts. Rookie Jake Allen has played in 37 games, starting 32 of them and registering a 22-7-4 record with a 2.28 goals against average, a 0.913 save percentage and 4 shutouts. While Allen has been the hot hand of late, Elliott won the regular season finale against Minnesota 4-2. Still, my sense is Allen might set-up in the crease when game one begins Thursday night.
Their ratio of goals scored and allowed during 5-on-5 play is 1.18, good for seventh overall and a key indicator of how teams play when at full strength. St. Louis’ special teams are consistently near the top as well. Ranking 4th overall, the Blues convert on the man-advantage 22.3% of the time while ranking 8th when shorthanded, surviving 83.7% of the time.
The game can be impacted at any time for various reasons and the Blues seems to have formed a pattern as to how their games go this season. Scoring first is key and the Blues win the game when netting the first goal 78.3% of the time, 4th overall. Puck control is also critical and the Blues rank second overall, just behind Boston, at winning the draw, 53.4% of the time.
If they trail heading into the first intermission, they only win 41.7% of the time, but still 7th overall. When they take the lead at the first break, they win 80.8% of their games, ranking 10th. If they take that lead into the second intermission, they win 84.2% of the time, good for 14th overall.
I’ll take a look at how Minnesota stacks up to St. Louis entering the opening round of the NHL playoffs. Game one is set for Thursday, April 16th at 8:30 Central Time in St. Louis and the Scottrade Center.
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