If you have been watching the NHL scoreboard over the last week, you might have noticed a peculiar trend: the favorites are… struggling?. We have seen rested underdogs upsetting powerhouse teams, and we have seen typically defensive squads getting blown out in high-scoring affairs.

To the casual fan, this looks like typical mid-season randomness. But to the sharp bettor, this is a predictable outcome of the 2026 calendar. We are currently in the middle of the “Pre-Olympic Sprint,” a unique two-week window where the league is trying to cram in as many games as possible before the February 6th break for the Milano Cortina Winter Games.

The result? Schedule compression. Teams are playing back-to-backs, three-in-fours and four-in-sixes. This physical toll is the single biggest variable in hockey betting right now, and if you aren’t accounting for “tired legs” in your handicapping, you are leaving money on the table.

The “Scheduled Loss” Phenomenon

In professional handicapping, a “scheduled loss” refers to a game where a team’s schedule is so disadvantageous that their probability of winning drops significantly. And it’s completely regardless of their talent level. Right now, these spots are everywhere.

Consider a team like the Colorado Avalanche or the Toronto Maple Leafs. They are elite squads, and the public loves to bet on them. However, when an elite team is playing their third game in four nights (especially on the road), their speed advantage evaporates. They become slower to loose pucks, their backchecking gets lazy and their penalty kill rotation slows down.

This is where the value lies. The betting public often looks at the standings and sees “First Place vs. Last Place” and blindly bets the favorite. But the smart money looks at the calendar. They see “Exhausted Elite Team vs. Rested Home Underdog” and pounce on the value.

This specific market inefficiency is where platforms like betway sports come into play. They provide the granular, day-to-day odds that allow you to exploit these fatigue spots. By monitoring the “Puck Line” (or spread) on these mismatched energy games, you can often find lucrative odds on underdogs that the general public is in some way ignoring. See, it is not about betting on the better team. No, it is about betting on the better situation.

The “Over” on Back-to-Backs

Another trend emerging from this compressed January schedule is the reliability of the “Over” in total goals markets. When teams are tired, defense is usually the first thing to go. Defensive structure requires focus, communication and tight positioning. All of which degrade when players are fatigued.

Furthermore, the condensed schedule forces coaches to rotate their goaltenders. You are seeing more starts for backup goalies and even third-string call-ups this week than at any other point in the season. When you have a tired defensive core playing in front of a backup goalie, you have a recipe for goals.

If you see a matchup where both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back, closely examine the Total Goals line. Even if both teams have strong defensive stats on paper, the reality of their physical condition actually suggests a much looser, sloppier game. In the end, these are the kind of scenarios where a 2-1 defensive struggle turns into a 5-4 shootout.

The Motivation Mismatch

Beyond the physical fatigue, there is a psychological element at play this week: The Olympic Roster factor.

With the break approaching, the league is divided into two groups of players: those going to Italy, and those going on vacation.

Players who have secured their spots on Team Canada, USA, Sweden or Finland are naturally trying to avoid injury. You might see a slight hesitation in blocking shots or going into the dirty areas of the ice. On the flip side, the “bubble players” (or those snubbed from rosters) are playing with a chip on their shoulder. They have something to prove.

Identifying these motivation gaps is crucial. A team full of veterans looking forward to a two-week vacation might check out mentally a few games early. Conversely, a young team fighting for a Wild Card spot knows that these points are critical. In the final week of January, “desperation” is a powerful metric. A desperate team with fresh legs is almost always a better betway sports bet than a comfortable team with tired legs.

Navigating the Noise

The key to surviving this volatile week of betway sports betting is to ignore the jersey on the front and focus on the context of the game. Do not bet on reputation. The Bruins might be the better team in a vacuum, but are they the better team tonight, playing their fourth road game in six days?

Use the schedule as your primary tool. Circle the teams playing back-to-backs. Highlight the teams traveling across multiple time zones. And most importantly, look for the lines that seem “too good to be true” on favorites… because they usually are. The oddsmakers know the teams are tired; make sure you do too. In the chaos of the pre-Olympic sprint, the most valuable stat isn’t Goals For or Goals Against. It’s Days of Rest.