JOHNS ISLAND, SC-The South Carolina Stingrays, after winning preliminary rounds against Charlotte, Florida and Cincinnati, have the opportunity to become the first three-time winner of the Kelly Cup in ECHL history. The Stingrays, winners in the 1996-97 and 2000-01 seasons, face the Alaska Aces who by virtue of their better regular season record have home ice advantage for the best-of-seven championship series. The Aces are seeking the team’s second Kelly Cup Championship, last winning in 2005-06.
In a bit of irony, the two teams prepared for the 2008-2009 season by playing a two-game exhibition set in Anchorage last October. They now close the regular season against each other. Other than the two exhibition games, which the teams split, the two squads did not meet in the regular season.
On their way to the finals against the Aces, the Stingrays eliminated the two best teams in the American Conference regular season after struggling a bit in their opening round series versus the Charlotte Checkers. They lost the first two games badly to Charlotte but bounced back to reel off four straight wins to take that series.
Next, they ousted the Florida Everblades 4-2 in an emotional six-game set. Florida, which had the best regular season record in the ECHL, was a heavy pre-season pick to win the Kelly Cup as they had assembled a deep, experienced team. All games in the series were settled by one goal margins and the teams played three overtime games including the deciding game six. In that game, the Everblades rallied to tie the game with two goals in the last two minutes of the game. The ‘Rays however, were able to shake this adversity and won the game and the series in overtime.
One question ‘Rays’ fans had when they opened the American Conference Championship against the Cincinnati Cyclones was, whether the emotional series against the Everblades had drained South Carolina? The ‘Rays answered the question with a four game sweep of the North Division champion Cyclones who were looking to repeat last year’s Kelly Cup victory.
Injury Update:
It appears for the first time since the playoffs began that Coach Jared Bednar, who has now mentored his team deep into two consecutive post seasons, will have access to his entire playoff roster. In Friday night’s clinching win in Cincinnati the club’s scratches included defensemen Nate Kiser, Lyon Messier and Sasha Pokoluk. Forwards Michael Dubuc and Rob Ricci also did not dress. However, either personal reasons such as the arrival of a new baby for the Pokoluk’s and college semester ending final exams for Ricci, simple lineup matches or rest account for the reasons this group did not dress at least on the surface. Kiser, who engaged in a fight in against Cyclones’ Justin Johnson, played the balance of that game while Johnson did not return to the ice and both were not in Friday’s lineup. It is unclear whether Kiser was simply given time off to get defenseman Josh Godfrey in the lineup or if he was injured again.
Godfrey saw his first action of the playoffs recording the first ‘Rays’ goal of the game Friday night at Cincinnati. Godfrey, who anchored one point on the power play for a lot of the regular season, was injured while playing in the AHL.
Lastly, while his shot does not yet appear to have fully recovered, Travis Morin recovered enough from his wrist injury to return to the lineup and his playmaking skills have not diminished. His assist on the game tying goal in Friday night’s closeout of Cincinnati represented vintage Morin penalty killing.
Goaltending:
The ‘Rays have been getting solid across-the-board defensive performances however; Jonathan Boutin has been outstanding. Boutin was especially good in the grinding series against Florida and the sweep of Cincinnati. Boutin, in goal, has posted 11 wins against 2 losses, has a save percentage of .906 and a goals against average of 2.74. Bednar’s goalie philosophy is to stay with the goalie who is winning. He has complete confidence in backup goalie James Reimer but Boutin’s play has kept Reimer out of the lineup. Boutin is one of the few Rays with experience against the Aces, having won one and lost two games against them before his trade to South Carolina from Victoria. Boutin and Reimer give the ‘Rays great depth in goal.
Offense:
Trent Campbell, (4g-14a-18pts) rookie Nikita Kashirsky, (5g-11a-16pts) Pierre-Luc O’Brien (5g-10a-15pts) and Travis Morin (3g-11a-14pts) lead the team in post season scoring. The key here is that Kashirsky, O’Brien and Morin, who led the team in regular season scoring, are all centers on different lines. Thus, the ‘Rays have gotten balanced scoring and represent a threat across all three lines. Matt Scherer, (8g) Maxime Lacroix, (7g), and Jeff Corey (6g) have been the up-front goal scorers. However, South Carolina is also a threat from the point. Defenseman Zack Takir with five goals has registered three game winners including two in overtime from the blue line. Michael Dubuc, who recently returned from injured reserve, seems to have regained his scoring form, scoring four times in ten games played. Dubuc, a rookie scored 35 goals in the regular season and is frequently used as the tenth man rotating across the three lines and playing on the power play. Spencer Carbery adds speed and a willingness to play the physical game when needed. Statistically, the ‘Rays have a ten goal edge in the number of goals scored but the Aces have allowed less than half the goals allowed by the Stingrays.
Defense:
Bednar almost has too many good defensemen to choose from. Kiser, who had the best plus/minus record in the league among defensemen in the regular season, was out for several games with an apparent concussion during the Florida series. His return gives his team a deterrent due to his physical presence. Brad Farynuk, Scott Romfro Patrick Weller and Takir are experienced guys who anchor the team’s defense. Johann Kroll, Josh Godfrey, Pokoluk and Takir give the Stingrays offensive threats from the point. Messier, who has yet to dress in the post season, was extremely solid as a late season addition to the team. The issue here for Bednar is who to play as no one in this group has played themselves out of the lineup.
Specialty Teams:
South Carolina comes into the finals with the best power play results scoring 20.9 percent of the time but the difference between the ‘Rays and Alaska is negligible. The Aces have a 19.0 success rate while on the power play. Penalty killing is a different matter. The Aces PK is running at an astounding 92.3 percent rate. South Carolina has killed 80.6 percent of the penalties they have faced. Clearly, South Carolina will need to improve in both areas if they are to be successful in this series.
Series Outlook:
It is hard to judge this series without the benefit of seeing the two teams in action against each other or against common foes. Since none of these common indicators exist prognosticators fall back on statistics and recent team playoff performances to gain insight or to be precise, guess at a result.
Clearly, Alaska has been dominating in all of their playoff series. South Carolina on the other hand has ousted two very tough foes including the team with the ECHL best regular season record and last year’s Kelly Cup Champion. They have not however, been as consistent in their game to game performance as the Aces have been.
The unknown is whether there is any difference in the level of competition in the two conferences? The answer will only come on the ice. Until they play, the edge on paper goes to Alaska based on the strength of the goal tender Jean-Philippe Lamoreau.
Notes: Playoff competition and comparisons of strength of playoff schedule South Carolina: Charlotte: 34-29-8 for 76 points in 71 games – .535 PCT Florida: 49-17-5 for 103 points in 71 games – .725 PCT Cincinnati: 41-26-5 for 87 points in 72 games – .604 PCT Alaska: Utah: 28-28-16 for 72 points in 72 games – 500 PCT Victoria: 38-27-7 for 83 points in 72 games – .576 PCT Las Vegas: 34-31-8 for 76 points in 73 games – .521 PCT C ontact the author at Phil.Brand@prohockeynews.com Catch all the playoffs at Intotheboards.net
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