The Pittsburgh Penguins hold the New York Rangers first‑round pick in this year’s draft, but there is a catch the Rangers control. When the clubs completed a multi‑team trade on Jan. 31, the pick arrived with a “top‑13 protection” rule. If the Rangers finished the season with a draft slot from 1‑13, they could keep the pick and instead send Pittsburgh their 2026 first‑rounder, which would have no protection at all.
Matvei Michkov #39 of the Philadelphia Flyers looks for the puck to rebound off the pads of Alex Nedeljkovic #39 of the Pittsburgh Penguins Photo Credit: Jack.Smart@prohockeynews.com
Early lists of top NHL draft prospects for 2025 have already compared possible returns. General manager Chris Drury now has until June 25 to decide: hand over No. 12 in 2025 or keep it and gamble on 2026. The Rangers reached that decision point after missing the playoffs, an outcome that also sparked lengthy conversations in New York about NHL playoff scenarios and how quickly the roster can rebound.
Penguins fans are following every rumor and update as the draft approaches, calculating scenarios and weighing what each possible pick could mean for the team’s future. With the excitement and uncertainty of the offseason, some fans are even sharing tips on budgeting for game-day expenses and finding fast cash for Penguins fans who don’t want to miss a moment at PPG Paints Arena. This anticipation—on and off the ice—is all part of the annual draft experience in Pittsburgh.
Why the decision matters
For Drury, the risk is clear. If New York’s roster stumbles again next season, a 2026 pick could land inside the top ten, maybe even the top five. Losing a premium prospect in that range would sting far more than parting with the 12‑spot this summer. On the other hand, keeping No. 12 now would let the Rangers add a cost‑controlled talent who could step onto an entry‑level contract just as veterans Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad age past their prime.
From Pittsburgh’s side, the outcome is positive either way. If the pick conveys in 2025, general manager Kyle Dubas will have two selections inside the first dozen (the Penguins already own No. 11). That would give the club a chance to grab two quality prospects in a single night or use one pick in a trade for immediate help. If the Rangers defer, Pittsburgh still drafts at 11 this year and gains an unprotected 2026 lottery ticket that could be worth even more.
How strong is the 2025 draft at No. 12?
Scouts agree that the first tier—names like Matthew Schaefer, Michael Misa, James Hagens, and Porter Martone—will be gone by the time Pittsburgh picks. The next group of NHL 2025 draft prospects still offers real upside, especially at center and on defense. A few players commonly rated in the 7‑to‑15 range:
- Roger McQueen, C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) – A 6‑foot‑5 right‑shot center with a heavy shot and strong puck‑protection skills. He missed time with a back injury but still sits inside the top five on several public lists.
- Jake O’Brien, C, Brantford (OHL) – A creative playmaker who surged into the top ten after a 94‑point season. Scouts praise his vision and power‑play work.
- Jackson Smith, D, Tri‑City (WHL) – A mobile, 6‑foot‑3 defender who plays tough minutes and moves the puck quickly. Often projected around the middle of the first round.
- Victor Eklund, LW, Djurgårdens (Sweden) – Balanced two‑way winger with a reliable motor and smart reads; some European lists rank him just outside the top ten.
What would Pittsburgh do at 11 and 12?
The Penguins have leaned toward big, tool‑heavy prospects under Dubas. Last summer, they chose center Brayden Yager at No. 14; in 2022, they kept their first‑rounder to grab 6‑foot‑5 defender Owen Pickering. A similar approach this year suggests McQueen if he is still available. The Penguins also like O’Brien’s hockey sense and could opt for him if they fear McQueen’s injury history.
The club’s prospect pool is thin on right‑handed defense, so Smith could enter the mix. But league sources say Pittsburgh’s internal mock drafts often open with a forward‑forward combination, counting on later rounds or trades to address the blue line.
Why the Rangers might keep the pick
Many analysts once believed the 2026 draft class would be deeper, but more recent rankings suggest a clearer top prospect (Medicine Hat forward Gavin McKenna) followed by a broad second tier. That uncertainty reduces the benefit of waiting. New York’s prospect cupboard, meanwhile, is light on high‑end talent. The 2017-2022 Rangers rebuild failed, and adding a player at No. 12 today could help keep the roster competitive and inexpensive over the next three seasons.
Why the Rangers might defer
If management trusts that this season’s 37‑36‑7 record was an outlier caused by injuries and poor five‑on‑five play, the club may see little downside in waiting. New head coach Mike Sullivan is expected to tighten the defensive structure, and goaltender Igor Shesterkin remains among the league’s best. A bounce‑back year could push the 2026 pick well into the 20s, making it less painful to lose.
Key dates ahead:
- June 25 – Trade deadline for Drury to notify the league of his decision.
- June 27 – First round of the draft in Los Angeles. If the Rangers send the pick this year, Pittsburgh will choose twice in quick succession.
- Summer 2026 – If the pick rolls over, the Penguins will monitor the Rangers’ season closely, hoping for a lower finish and better lottery odds.
Executives weigh in
A rival Eastern Conference general manager put the dilemma in plain terms: “If you hand over No. 12, you lose a good player. If you wait and things go sideways, you could give up something far better. Fans remember that for a long time.” Another front‑office source said, “The so‑called deeper 2026 class is top‑heavy. After the first few names, it resembles 2025 quite a bit. That makes the known pick safer.”
Possible scenarios:
- The Penguins draft now – They pick at 11 and 12. It’s a likely haul: one of McQueen or O’Brien plus the best player left on their board. They could also package a pick in a trade for NHL help.
- Pick defers to 2026 – Penguins draft at 11 this year and hold an extra lottery ticket next summer. A top‑10 outcome in 2026 would give the club a centerpiece prospect just as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin near retirement.
Projected outcome
Most people around the league expect Drury to hand over No. 12. The optics of risking an unprotected first in a stronger lottery are hard to stomach, especially for a team that just missed the playoffs. If that consensus holds, Pittsburgh will likely grab a skilled forward (O’Brien or McQueen) and a second asset—perhaps a defender—within minutes of each other on draft night.
Bottom line
The Penguins are in a comfortable spot. They either get two first‑round picks this month or one now, plus an unprotected pick next year. For a franchise trying to rebuild its pipeline while still competing around Crosby, it is a valuable safety net. The Rangers must decide whether immediate help at No. 12 is worth more than gambling on a brighter 2025‑26 season. Whatever Drury chooses, Kyle Dubas and the Penguins’ scouting staff stand to benefit—and fans will be watching closely as the latest chapter of Pittsburgh hockey news unfolds.
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