Landing in second place in the Pacific Division and flying to the Conference Finals, the Edmonton Oilers looked to be on their way to fulfilling Connor McDavid’s destiny of winning the Stanley Cup. Entering the 2022/23 campaign, a rough start was levelled out by a hot five-game winning streak to end October, but that would remain the pinnacle of consistent play from the Oilers through to the halfway mark.
With 43 games in the book, the Oilers had a .547 win percentage and a massive 153 goals that rivalled the trailblazing Boston Bruins. This held the Alberta franchise five points behind the nearest divisional team (Seattle Kraken), with the Kraken having three games in hand on the Oilers. It certainly wasn’t the start that Edmonton wanted, but true contenders do tend to pick up after the All-Star weekend (February 5th).
A much more eagerly anticipated date for the front office, however, is the NHL trade deadline. Issues have been there all season, but general manager Ken Holland hasn’t made a move since switching for Klim Kostin on October 9th. The March 3rd deadline is still far away but Holland needs to be proactive and get some deals done soon.
Edmonton is certainly in the mix for the postseason, spearheaded by the phenomenal talents of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who respectively boasted 79 and 63 points in 43 games. However, there are some clear targets to land in the trade market to equal or better last season’s finish.
The consistently inconsistent Oilers
When you have four players putting up 20 or more goals in just over twice as many games, it’s easy to point to defensive and goaltending frailties as the problem. Without a consistent, stubborn, and chemistry-driven set of defensive lines, even the most offensively gifted teams will struggle to net wins. Up to January 12th, the Oilers had only put together four sets of consecutive wins. These winning streaks came in the form of a five-game, a three-game, and two two-game winning streaks.
What’s worse is that the Oilers haven’t even been injury-prone, with Evander Kane’s freak skate blade-induced wrist injury being the only major loss in his 14 appearances – at which point, Kane had five goals and 13 points. The power forward will be back in the top six soon, which will boost even-strength scoring and add a bit more physicality, but defensive efforts have been lacking throughout the lines.
Being such a high-scoring team, the first place to blame for the lowly goal differential is the crease. Jack Campbell struggled mightily out of the gate. His five-year, $25-million deal is already looking misplaced after a 10-8-1 record, .879 save percentage, and 3.59 goals against average. Luckily, Stuart Skinner has stepped up on several occasions, going 12-10-2 with a .914 save percentage and 2.96 GAA in 25 starts.
Still, there are very few inexperienced 24-year-old goalies in the history of the NHL who could be relied upon for the glut of the regular season, let alone in the heat of the playoffs. Skinner’s stats are clearly being weighed down by a lack of defensive help. He’s facing a massive 34.5 shots against per 60 minutes, which is good for goalies with 20 or more games. Skinner only trails John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks (39.0) in this stat.
A lack of defensive ability can easily crush any team, and that’s what the experts are commenting on. Even though Connor McDavid is the clear favourite to win the Hart Memorial Trophy at -275, this week’s picks in the outright markets have the Oilers at +1300 to win the division, and their best odds for the Stanley Cup are way out at +2500. It’s not what you’d expect from a team that made it to the Conference Finals and has changed little since.
Undoubtedly, there is still talent skating on the blue line for the Oilers. Darnell Nurse, Tyson Barrie, and Cody Ceci have all established themselves in the NHL as solid, minute-munching defensemen with good puck skills. Stats-wise for hits and blocked shots, those three players, as well as Brett Kulak and Evan Bouchard have done fine, but there have been more instances of extended slumps in the defensive lines than game-winning performances. Just 17 games into his NHL career, Philip Broberg is finding his feet but performing about as well as you’d expect from the rookie.
Shorthanded support from a left shot needed
The biggest need for the Edmonton Oilers before the trade deadline comes around is a reliable left-shot defenseman who’ll solidify the penalty kill and is capable of taking some minutes from Nurse (24:03 time on ice per game). Luckily, the front office knows that this is a pressing matter, with this month’s rumour reports indicating that Holland has been calling around to get some prices on defensemen. Joel Edmundson and Jakob Chychrun have been cited as targets.
To establish how great this need is for the offensively gifted Oilers, let’s delve into some stats. At 43 games into the campaign, Edmonton sat with the ninth most goals against (145 to average 3.37 per game), the 25th-ranked penalty kill percentage (73.3%), and the tenth most goals against at 5v5 (88 to average 2.05 per game). The issues get worse shorthanded, with Edmonton in fourth for goals against in 4v5 situations (36) and third for the most power-play goals against per game (0.98).
At the trade deadline, good players in bad situations and those with expiring contracts always top the trade bait lists – especially if their contracts are cost-effective. Chychrun is in the last year of his $4.6 million per season contract without a modified no-trade clause. Edmundson is cost-effective at $3.5 million per season until the end of 2023/24.
However, the defenseman who looks perfectly aligned to suit the Oilers is trade-destined skater Vladislav Gavrikov.
The left-shot, 6’3’’, 213 lbs Russian has been a bright spot for the basement-dwelling Columbus Blue Jackets this season. They may have conceded 158 goals with a -55 goal differential 40 games in, but Gavrikov maintained a mere -5 rating despite averaging 22:29 minutes per game. As part of that time on ice, the blueliner hits 3:43 minutes per game shorthanded, which ranks him fourth in the NHL and has him skating for 70 per cent of Columbus’ time shorthanded.
Now in his fourth year with the Blue Jackets – and the final of his contract that bills $2.8 million per season – Gavrikov looks to be cementing himself as one of the league’s most trusted defensive defensemen. He’s put up 40 hits, 70 blocked shots, and nine points in 39 games so far. While his 9.91 shorthanded goals against per 60 minutes stat isn’t overly strong, it isn’t helped by the tanking team. Still, it is better than Drew Doughty (10.39), Adam Fox (10.61), and Joel Edmundson (10.30) at the time of writing – all three of whom play fewer minutes shorthanded than Gavrikov.
Ideally, a couple of defensemen would be brought in to shore up the blueline corps. Stalwart third-liner Radko Gudas will likely be shopped around again and often delivers beyond what he’s paid (currently $2.5 million). On the other hand, the Nashville Predators are expected to ship 32-year-old Mattias Ekholm. The Swede is certainly an excellent left-shot defenseman and has a nice 7.44 PPGA/60 from 2:49 shorthanded minutes per game, but his $6.25 million per season deal runs to 2025/26 and looks to be a bit much for the cash-strapped Oilers.
Adding experience in the crease would be wise
Along with a couple of defensemen coming in and perhaps with some more two-way forwards to replace any outgoing, it would also be worth bringing in a trusty goaltender to backup Skinner. As Campbell’s signed on for so long and Skinner seems to be the future in the crease, getting a short-term option with bundles of postseason experience would be wise. This would put Craig Anderson in the crosshairs. The 41-year-old continues to play well in tandem, holding a .921 save percentage and 2.71 goals against average for the Buffalo Sabres. Plus, his current deal is for a mere $1.5 million.
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The holes are glaringly obvious for the Edmonton Oilers, and the GM should be in the mindset of gunning for a deep postseason run this year and next, so it’d make sense for the franchise to be busy as we approach March 3rd.
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