NIHL North: Moralee D1 mid-season stats review and predictions

(Image permission: Duncan Speirs)

BILLINGHAM, UK – Entering the first weekend of fixtures of 2019 let’s take a look at how things have changed since the start of the season and see how the predictions made have aged before any games were played.

Sheffield Steeldogs – Pre-season prediction: 2nd

After winning every Moralee D1 game until December 22nd, the Dogs have lost two of their last three games against their title rivals Telford Tigers and Hull Pirates.

The Dogs have generally been a strong defensive team, not really blowing teams away but picking up wins all the same.

Sheffield’s strength definitely lies with their defence as they sit 2nd in terms of penalty kill and shots against per game, but have fallen behind Telford and Hull in all other statistical areas covered in this blog. Mid-season prediction: 3rd.

Hull Pirates – Pre-season prediction: 1st

After a barnstorming start to the season in which the Pirates won their opening nine fixtures with an aggregate score of 91-15 over their opponents, they suffered a blip after Czech netminder Tomas Fucik left the club.

Ashley Smith returned to backstop the team and that went about as well as expected. Roll forward to January and with Smith injured the Pirates have loaned Brad Day as cover and their title challenge is back on.

It will be interesting to see what happens if Smith becomes available again. From a statistical point of view the Pirates are either 1st or 2nd in all categories except shots against per game (they’re 3rd in that category). Mid-season prediction: 2nd.

Telford Tigers – Pre-season prediction: 3rd

Before the season began we predicted a 3rd place finish for the Tigers. Since then they have added Doug Clarkson to their ranks who boasts an impressive 43 points in just 13 league games.

They have also signed Sam Gospel to a 2-way contract from Nottingham Panthers as cover for the injured Denis Bell, despite Tom Hovell taking them on a fantastic run in all competitions.

These signings have pushed Telford very much to the top of the league where they sit at this point in time. Telford, like Hull sit in 1st or 2nd in all statistical areas except one (they are 4th in terms of penalty kill) and with the firepower of their aging core, the Tigers are setting the pace. Mid-season prediction: 1st.

Solway Sharks – Pre-season prediction: 4th

The Sharks have done nothing to dispel the thought they will be the ‘best of the rest’. They sit 4th in the table, 4th in terms of point percentage and 4th in the majority of statistical areas we cover.

The reservation at the start of the season was a young netminding trio. Of the three Calum Hepburn is the only one with over a 90% save percentage, however this comes on just 46 shots faced.

New signings Ric Bentham, Petr Gapa and Cale Tanaka are the team’s top scorers for a team that focuses mostly on being a solid, responsible unit with strong systems. Nothing has changed in terms of prediction. Mid-season prediction: 4th.

Solihull Barons – Pre-season prediction: 5th

The Barons are a statistical Jekyll and Hyde this season featuring as high as 3rd and as low as 9th in different areas, making them a very tough team to predict.

Despite strong starts to the season from Niklas Ottosson and Luke Brittle, the Barons have trailed away a little of late as they have hit a very tough run of fixtures against the top four.

We predicted that Solihull would maintain their position from the 2017/18 season based on others not catching them in terms of personnel, however this has now changed and we expect another team to finish above them. Mid-season prediction: 6th.

Billingham Stars – Pre-season prediction: 6th

Well this one has certainly not come true thus far. The Stars are propped up only by the Nottingham Lions and have not been picking up points against the teams they would expect to.

Billingham are currently going through their annual injury crisis and have been short-benched for the last few weeks. The Teessiders have shown glimpses of what they can do in spirited, albeit losing, efforts against the ‘Big 3’ and in taking points off Solihull and also Solway in the Cup.

But they have been losing the ones that really matter against Sutton Sting, Blackburn Hawks (in the league) and Whitley. Statistically the Stars are where they should be, however they will be hoping that with players on their way back and the fall of the Hawks they can get back into the play-off picture.

A final point – the Stars really need to stop conceding short-handed as they have done so now 11 times in all competitions. Mid-season prediction: 9th.

Whitley Warriors – Pre-season Prediction: 7th

The Warriors endured a torrid start to the season going 1-5-1 in September. This led to Jordan Barnes and Richie Lawson speaking out against management and their lack of spending which they felt was holding the team back.

This prompted the arrival of Latvian Rolands Gritans and the return of Canadian Phil Edgar to the Warriors’ ranks. However the biggest coup was the signing of Ben Campbell just as the season got underway.

The former Guildford Flames forward has established himself as the league’s leading goal scorer and is 2nd in terms of points. The Warriors, like the Barons, find themselves as high as 3rd and low as 9th in different statistical areas, but are on the rise after their bad start. Mid-season prediction: 5th.

Blackburn Hawks – Pre-season prediction: 8th

The Hawks’ roster took a blow in the last couple of weeks. Adam Barnes has been spending more time with his parent club Manchester Storm and Kieran Brown was recalled by Sheffield Steelers and then shipped straight back off to division rivals Sutton.

Peta Valusiak has been a bright spot along with a couple of the younger players, however the Hawks look to be on the downturn.

They have the worst save percentage in the league with a meagre 85.37% and they find themselves in a dog fight for the last play-off spot as predicted at the start of the year. Mid-Season prediction: 8th.

Sutton Sting – Pre-season Prediction: 9th

Sting have surprised a few this year beating everyone bar the top three at least once. Stan Lascek, as expected, leads the team in points, while the likes of Craig Elliott and Ryan Johnson are also over a point per game.

The Nottinghamshire/Sheffield hybrid outfit have suffered some thumping defeats and have the 2nd worst goal difference because of this, but it is those aforementioned victories that look to have them in a good position to finish ahead of both Billingham and Blackburn.

Their special teams are their best feature as they sit 4th in terms of special team efficiency. Mid-season prediction: 7th.

Nottingham Lions – Pre-season prediction: 10th

As it was predicted, so it appears to be. The Lions have endured an awful season thus far. 23 games played, 23 regulation defeats and an average score line of 1-9.

As was seen with Warren Tait jumping ship last season we have seen the same from Paul Stanley and even their captain Elliott Perrin who have both gone to Solihull.

The Lions are receiving praise from all quarters that they are able to keep going week after week and there are a few bright spots in Ruskin Hughes and Cameron Pywell to name just a couple, but there is every possible chance that the Lions will go the whole season without a point as they sit dead last in every category except team save percentage. Mid-season prediction: 10th.

The Lowe Down Prediction