TAMPA, Fla.- There is an age old question when it comes to drafting talent no matter the sport: fill a need or best available talent? The deeper a team picks, more often than not the answer is pick the player who best fits into the system while providing the most versatility.
Then again, if the team is already stocked with talent finding the best player out there can start early.
Coming off another deep run in the Stanley Cup playoffs, the Tampa Bay Lightning find themselves in the middle of a lot of questions as the 2016 NHL Entry Draft gets set to begin in Buffalo on Friday night. The last time the draft was held in Buffalo (1998), the Lightning selected forward Vincent Lecavalier – who went on to help Tampa Bay win its only Stanley Cup in 2004 – with the number one pick. This time around, the Lightning will be making the 27th selection in the first round, the first of nine picks the team has over the course of the draft.
Tampa comes off a 2015-16 season that saw it earn the eighth best record in the entire NHL (46-31-0-5,97 points). Even without superstar Steven Stamkos, who missed significant time during the back half of the regular season and much of the playoffs, the Lightning were able to get all the way to the Eastern Conference final series before losing in game seven to the eventual Cup winners from Pittsburgh.
From a statistical standpoint, the Lightning did not provide a lot of offense on most nights in averaging 2.73 goals per game while allowing the opposition to score 2.41 goals per game. On average, Tampa put 29.3 shots on net and gave up 28.9 per game.
Penalty killing was a major reason why the Lightning were successful. Tampa had the fourth best penalty killing mark, allowing 41 goals in 257 times shorthanded for a success rate of 84 percent. At home, the Lightning gave up just 18 opposition power play goals in 123 chances (85.4 percent) while one the road allowing 23 goals in 134 times short (82.8 percent).
The power play, a staple of the offense for several seasons thanks to Stamkos, was near the bottom of the league at a season average of 15.8 percent (44-279). Naturally the success rate was better at home (31-150 / 20.7 percent) while the road mark was awful (13-129 / 10.1 percent).
Prior to suffering a vascular issue, Stamkos was having another one of his years, netting 36 goals and adding 28 assists for 64 points. Nikita Kucherov ended up leading the team in scoring with 30 goals and 66 points, picking up where Stamkos left off. Defenseman Victor Hedman (10 goals, 37 assists) asserted himself in Stamkos’ absence and was a key factor in the playoffs. Alex Killorn (14-26, 40 points) and Ondrej Palat (16-24, 40 points) also came up big.
Ben Bishop was again a major factor between the pipes, winning 35 games and posting a 2.76 goals against average during the regular season. An injury derailed him during the playoffs, allowing backup Andrei Vasilevskiy to earn his stripes after winning eleven games with a goals against average of 2.06 during the regular season.
Right now, general manager Steve Yzerman finds himself worrying about more than just the draft. On July 1st, free agency begins and the biggest fish in the pond is expected to be Stamkos. Stamkos’ people are expected to ask for north of $10 million per year – a number that Yzerman may not be willing to pay because the Lightning payroll has very little room left. With Kucherov and Killorn earning restricted free agent status this year, Yzerman needs to strike a balance in order to keep the team together.
Following next season, Tampa is in an even tougher spot with Bishop and Hedman becoming unrestricted free agents while Vasilevskiy, Tyler Johnson, Palat and Jonathan Drouin all restricted free agents. Drouin, the problem child for much of the season, came back from a walkout to play well at the end of the regular season and throughout the playoffs, causing the Lightning to rethink trying to trade him. Additionally, the addition of Las Vegas to the NHL will create an expansion draft that could cause the loss of Vasilevskiy if the team locks in Bishop.
Right now – and ignoring the salary cap for the time being – the Lightning have more than enough pieces in place for the upcoming season to make a strong run even if Stamkos goes elsewhere (numerous teams including Buffalo, Toronto and Detroit are rumored to be potential suitors ready to open their checkbooks). There are no immediate needs that need to be addressed so Tampa has some time to draft and develop talent either by signing relatively cheap entry level contracts or leaving players in juniors. So expect to hear the following from the podium:
“With the 27th pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, the Tampa Bay Lightning select, from the OHL’s Mississauga Steelheads, forward Nathan Bastian”.
Contact the author at don.money@prohockeynews.com
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