Throughout this year, Seattle’s expansion group has completed many steps, putting the future Seattle franchise on track to begin play in the 2020-21 NHL season. They have already announced that they will build a practice facility and headquarters for the team, the City of Seattle approved a $700 million renovation of Key Arena, and the NHL’s executive committee voted 9-0 in favor of having the rest of the NHL’s board of governors approve Seattle’s expansion bid by December. The approval of the NHL’s 32nd franchise is looking inevitable at this point.
KeyArena, the possible home of the future Seattle NHL team, in Seattle, Washington.
Mandatory Credit: The Seattle Times
With the Vegas Golden Knights’ entry into the league last season, there is far less uncertainty surrounding NHL expansion, and its effects might be easier to predict. As with Vegas’ entry, Seattle’s entry will dramatically change the league in many ways.
The NHL gains a foothold in a market abandoned by the NBA
Professional sports leagues by revenue in 2017, the most recent available year.
Mandatory Credit: nexchange.com
The NBA in many ways is the NHL’s most direct competitor. Not only do they both have 82-game seasons that essentially start and end at the same time, they also are much closer to each other than either league is to the MLB or NFL in terms of total league revenue, as seen above. Both the NBA and NHL’s league revenues are less than half of the MLB’s. The NHL and NBA also have 16 teams that compete with each other directly in the same markets, making up over half of the teams in each league.
Perhaps one of the most critical factors that makes Seattle attractive to the NHL is the lack of an NBA franchise in the city. When the Seattle SuperSonics left the city following the conclusion of the 2007-08 NBA season, Greater Seattle, with a population of nearly 3.9 million became the largest American metropolitan area not served by an NBA team, making it an incredible opportunity for the NHL. Seattle is also a proven hockey market as Greater Seattle already supports two WHL franchises, the Seattle Thunderbirds and the Everett Silvertips.
Since the MLB’s season has minimal overlap with the NHL’s season, the Seattle NHL franchise would not have to compete with the Seattle Mariners, and the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks end their regular season in December. This gives the Seattle NHL team a window from January to April free of competition from any other major league team, and a window from October to December where they only have to compete with one Seahawks game a week. The NBA’s loss is often the NHL’s gain, and the NHL will secure significant advantages over its rival by going expanding to Seattle.
More offense and a natural rivalry with Vancouver
NHL avergage team goals per game (shown in the second column).
Mandatory Credit: hockeyreference.com
In the 2017-18 season, the NHL enjoyed one of the most significant increases in goal scoring in recent history, and the thinning of the defensive depth of many NHL teams caused by losses in the expansion draft undoubtedly had an effect. Average team goals scored per game went up by nearly 7% from the 2016-17 to the 2017-18 NHL seasons, and if the Seattle expansion draft has the same effect as Vegas’, the NHL could see an even more significant increase in goal scoring.
Also, Seattle is located just 143 miles (230 km) south of Vancouver, making the Vancouver Canucks an instant natural geographic rival for Seattle’s NHL team. This would make a Seattle NHL team a welcome addition for Vancouver and their fanbase as they are currently separated by hundreds of miles from their existing Pacific Division rivals.
Division RealignmentÂ
NHL division alignment as of the 2018-19 NHL season.
Mandatory Credit: The Home of the NHL Realignment Project
With the entry of Seattle, the Eastern and Western Conferences will finally be balanced with 16 teams each. Given its location, Seattle will obviously play in the Pacific Division, but that means that one of the current members of the eight-team Pacific Division will have to move over to the seven-team Central Division.
Los Angeles, Anaheim, Vegas, San Jose, and Vancouver are all in the Pacific time zone, so it is unlikely that any of these teams would move to the Central. Despite being located in the Mountain time zone, Edmonton and Calgary are natural rivals, making it highly unlikely that the NHL would move either of their teams to the Central. This leaves the Pacific’s only other Mountain time zone team, Arizona, the team that would most likely be moved to the Central Division if the NHL chooses to keep the current four-division alignment after Seattle’s entry.
However, having 32 teams would give the NHL the opportunity to create eight four-team divisions, and change the current playoff format, which would change the NHL’s competitive dynamic entirely.
Lost opportunities for other markets and relocationÂ
The imminent approval of Seattle as the NHL’s 32nd franchise represents lost opportunities for other potential markets, namely Houston and Quebec City. It seems unlikely that the NHL would expand beyond 32 teams and become the largest professional sports league in North America without action from one of the other major leagues.
As a result, if a traditional hockey market like Quebec or Houston, currently the largest city in the United States without an NHL team, wants a team, they would likely have to acquire one through relocation. Recently, the NHL has been resistant to relocation efforts partially because of wanting to encourage expansion bids. With the expansion efforts gone, the NHL and its leadership might be more likely to approve franchise relocations. This could make the prospect of relocation a more serious threat to struggling franchises after Seattle joins the league.
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