HOUSTON, Texas – A mere four teams remain standing in the AHL, on the Western Conference side it will be the Hamilton Bulldogs and Houston Aeros battling it out for a chance at the Calder Cup. Hamilton polished off Manitoba on Monday in a 3OT game 7 battle of attrition to earn their spot. Houston went to game 7 with Milwaukee on Tuesday and squeaked out a tiebreaking goal with just a minute left in regulation to take the series. Now the two face each other in the playoffs for the first time since the 2003 Calder Cup Finals, when the Aeros won it all in a dramatic, nearly interminable game 7. Here’s how the match-up looks: OFFENSE The Aeros bring balanced scoring to the table, with offensive contributions spread across all four lines. Only two Aeros have more than 3 goals — Colton Gillies with 6 and Patrick O‘Sullivan with 4. Because of this, the Aeros are difficult to shut down and can suffocate teams with wave after wave of offensive pressure. Hamilton is more top-heavy, with Nigel Dawes scoring 9 of their 35 playoff goals, and Aaron Palushaj, Gabriel Dumont and Ryan Russell contributing 4 apiece. While you can’t overlook these players, or Dustin Boyd and Kyle Klubertanz who have 7 and 8 points respectively, the offensive depth isn’t as threatening. Edge: Houston DEFENSE The Aeros have a strong, but young, defense that balance stay at home, shut-down capability with offensive prowess. Hamilton’s defense has been stingy, allowing the second fewest goals in the league during the regular season. However, Hamilton has had superior goaltending most of the season, with Curtis Sanford and Drew MacIntyre both posting sub-2 GAA and above 0.93 save percentages. Houston, on the other hand, was inconsistent in goal all season and not much better in the playoffs. Matt Hackett, who has been in net for Houston throughout the playoffs, has a so-so 2.29 GAA and 0.896 in 11 games. But looking at how many shots teams are exposing their goalies to per game tells a different tale, as Hackett is seeing an average of less than 23 shots per game, while MacIntyre is seeing more than 29. The Aeros’ bread and butter is putting a ton of shots on goal from every possible direction, so Hamilton will need to limit shots to slow them down. Edge: Houston GOALTENDING As mentioned above, the consistently dominant performance by MacIntyre has been the story of the playoffs for Hamilton. That said, Jeremy Smith’s dominant performances were the backbone of Milwaukee’s playoff run, and Houston got past him. It’s the goalie in the Aeros’ own net they need to worry about more. Rookie Hackett has been spectacular at times, but inconsistent game to game. He does, however, have a veteran’s ability to leave a bad game behind and make up for it in the next outing. Edge: Hamilton SPECIAL TEAMS Hamilton is slightly ahead of Houston on the power play but neither team is dominant with the man advantage. However, the Bulldogs do have the clear advantage on the penalty kill. They have allowed only 5 goals in 61 short-handed situations thus far in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Aeros have allowed 7 power play goals, but were shorthanded only 43 times in just 2 fewer games. Edge: Hamilton OVERALL Hamilton had almost identical regular season goals for/against numbers as Milwaukee, so the quality of the defense and the level of offensive pressure should feel fairly familiar to Houston. The series will come down to goaltending: Can Houston’s barrage of offense wear down MacIntyre? Can Hamilton take advantage of the Aeros’ less experienced net minder? Prediction: Houston will take capitalize on their home ice advantage, wearing down MacIntyre after two long series in net, and take the series in 6 games. Contact Heather.Galindo@prohockeynews.com
