PHILADELPHIA, Pa – The Philadelphia Flyers have 9 games left to go in their season but the stark reality of the situation is that the 2016-17 season is all but over for the orange and black. As much as the current crop of Flyers continue to play on, the situation keeps getting less and less likely that the Flyers will make the playoffs.
Unfortunately that also means that the post-mortem has already begun from the fans and the media, even if the team does not want to hear it. That’s just the way it is in sports. The season never really is over until the fans say it is, despite the number of
File photo courtesy of Lewis Bleiman
games left on the schedule.
After the season the Flyers will have to start making some hard decisions. Today we take a look at some of them in the order of necessity such as: Free agency, the NHL draft, and the expansion draft thanks to the new kids on the block, the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Head Coach – Dave Hakstol is in his second year as the Flyers HC. Needless to say his second year has not gone as well as his first. He was handpicked by General Manager Ron Hextall right out of college. One very interesting note about his time at the University of North Dakota is that in the 11 years that he was there as the Head Coach he had never won the NCAA Frozen Four championship. Last season, a year removed from Hakstol’s reign, the school finally won the Frozen Four. That’s not a knock on Hakstol by any stretch, that’s just reality.
Still, he had a successful run a UND. He has never had a losing season and was 14 games over .500 last season with the Flyers. Even if the Flyers current season ends below .500 he should not be let go. The team made the playoffs last season and the Flyers have had two different HC’s before him in the Peter Laviolette and Craig Berube in 2014 and 2015. The Flyers can’t keep getting rid of coaches left and right when the team has been in salary cap hell (thanks to former GM Paul Holmgren), and has never cared a lick about the NHL draft past the first round going back to the days of former GM Bob Clarke.
While Hakstol has had his issues, Hextall will give him at least through next season to get things righted. That said, it’s high time the current players on the roster and GM’s past and present be held accountable for the current state of the team which leads us to our next subject.
The General Manager – Ron Hextall has a Stanley Cup ring on his finger these days, not from his playing days as a former goaltender of the Philadelphia Flyers, but as an assistant GM of the Los Angeles Kings under former Flyers scout Dean Lombardi. It took Lombardi six seasons before winning a cup as GM. Hextall became the Flyers GM in May of 2014. Under Lombardi, Hextall learned the hard way that Stanley Cup champions are built through the draft, not through free agency.
Hextall did not just learn that lesson from the Kings; he also learned it from the Chicago Blackhawks as well. The Hawks are not only known for drafting well, but for dumping players who made too much money or were about to make too much in free agency. The Hawks core group of players where high round draft picks (rounds 1-3) and the supporting were drafted below the third round. Their headliners have stayed the same but their supporting cast has not because of the salary cap.
File photo courtesy of Brianna O’Mara
Still, “Hexy” has some very important decisions to make, starting with the players who may or may not be the core of this team going forward, such as Claude Giroux and Jake Voracek who both have hefty salary cap hits at over $8M per season. Wayne Simmonds has two years left on his contract and is arguably the team’s best player, which also means he is about to get a huge payday. Giroux has five years left to go on his contract and Voracek has a whopping seven years left on his. That reeks of the type of free spending, long term contract days of Bob Clarke.
Isn’t it a bad sign that the team still has Clarke and Holmgren still in management positons? Why would someone like Hextall, who’s philosophy is to build a team through the draft, want three players taking up a huge part of their salary cap? It tells me that Clarke and Holmgren still have too much influence on the organization. Unless someone steps aside, expect the Flyers to remain stuck in a pre-salary cap mentality.
The Flyers are on the verge of missing the playoffs for the third time in the past six seasons. Hextall has preached patience with his top prospects, and he should. That said its time to fish or cut bait with the current players and continue to get rid of the players making too much money and receiving little in return (See Andrew MacDonald for details).
The Expansion draft – Viva Las Vegas and welcome to the NHL and all that fun stuff. On June 21st, the real fun begins for every NHL team since they will lose one player to the Knights. NHL teams can protect either: Seven forwards and three defensemen or any combination of eight skaters (forwards and defensemen). They can also protect one goalie regardless of how they protect the skaters. Free agents of any kind are protected but don’t count against the teams protected list.
First and second year players don’t have to be protected, as well as unsigned draft choices, so the Flyers don’t have to worry about protecting players such as Travis Konecny, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Ivan Provorov and have them count against their protected list. Anyone who has a no-movement clause (Giroux, Simmonds, and Valtteri Filppula) must be protected and must count in the teams list of protected players.
The Flyers should deploy the option of protecting eight forwards and defensemen leaving more players open to the expansion draft, especially those who are making good money. With the Flyers salary cap issues, even those they will not be bringing back most, if not all, of their restricted and unrestricted free agents. Protecting Brandon Manning might not seem like something the team might normally protect but his cap hit is only 975k where MacDonald’s cap hit is 5 million per season with three years left to go.
File photo courtesy of Lewis Bleiman
Not that the Flyers are asking me for advice but if I were advising them id protect and unprotect the following players:
Protected – Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Filppula, Schenn, Manning, Sean Couturier, and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare.
Unprotected – Matt Read, Michael Raffl, Dale Weise, Radko Gudas, and Michal Neuvirth.
The Flyers have four UFA’S and three RFA’s: Roman Lyubimov, Nick Cousins, Chris Vande Velde, Steve Mason, Michael Del Zotto, Nick Schultz, and Gostisbehere. The only two players that look like they will be brought back are Gostisbehere and Cousins.
Despite the glut of young defenseman coming up starting next season and a in a down year for Gostisbehere he is a part of the teams future going forward. Cousins is in a tight spot because you get past their defensemen, the center position looks like it is in good hands in terms of prospects which makes Cousins expendable. Del Zotto might be back but it would have be at a lower price, Vande Velde wins face-offs which makes him a bet to stay on as a fourth line center.
If I were a betting man my money would be for either Read or Neuvirth to be taken by the Knights. GM George McPhee knows Neuvirth from his Washington Capital days and Read only has one year left on his contract. The Knights also have to be at the salary cap floor so taking on Gudas and his $3.35M cap or MacDonald’s $5M with only three left on each might not be a bad thing. Vegas can’t just take a bunch of players making around a million or less, They are going to need some vets who can help right away, not just have a bunch of kids they draft, it doesn’t work that way.
The NHL draft – The Flyers biggest need heading into this June’s NHL Entry draft (and in free agency of that matter) is the need for scorers, especially on the left wing. The Flyers currently have no left wingers in double digit goals. The closest they have is Raffl with eight goals. Collectively the four left wingers they do have account for only 16 goals, one less that Voracek does by himself. Oskar Lindblom is the Flyers best left wing prospect is he has great chance of making the big club next season. After that the talent level falls off for left wing prospects.
File photo courtesy of Lewis Bleiman
At center, last year’s first round pick German Rubtsov is looking very good in juniors and is on the horizon but like the rest of their center prospects, such as Pascal Laberge, Connor Bunnaman, Tanner Laczynski, and Anthony Salinitri, they are at least 2-3 years away.
After Konecny, the Flyers have Wade Allison and Nicolas Aube-Kubel at right wing but Allison is also 2-3 years away. He is a solid prospect but needs at least one more season in the AHL before the Flyers can consider him NHL ready. My suggestion at the 2015 draft was to take Mikko Rantanen, who the Flyers could have taken him at #7 but selected Provorov instead.
The Flyers appear to have finally hit the jackpot in net. Carter Hart is starting down the possibility of repeating as the WHL’s goaltender of the year unless Conner Ingram takes that honor. Hart is very rare prospect in that he already in his four seasons of the Western Hockey League. He isn’t AHL capable until he turns 20 but for one season he might have to start in the ECHL. Staying in the WHL one more season does him no good. He has improved every season and is having his best season yet with a 1.99 goals against average and a .927 save percentage.
Merrick Madsen is having a stellar year at Harvard with a 2.18 goals against average and a .918 save percentage. He will go pro next year but depending on what the Flyers do with Alex Lyon and Anthony Stolarz will determine if he goes to the A or the E. Also, be mindful of Felix Sandstrom who was taken in 2015. He will either remain in Sweden or come overseas but like Madsen finding him a place to will be an issue until the Flyers decide what to do at the NHL and AHL levels.
The bottom line is the Flyers finally have some kids to look forward to in net. How it shakes out is going to be the most interesting issue of them all.
Free Agency – If the Flyers decided to not resign any of their UFA’S they would save $11.8625 off the cap. Take into account they have lose one player in the expansion draft (such as Neuvirth and his $2.5M cap hit or Read at $3.625M hit) and it will go a long way to Hextall finally adding a true number one goaltender (Ben Bishop? Ryan Miller?) and add at least one more sniper (TJ Oshie?) with room to spare under the cap.
It would not be unrealistic to think that with the amount of youth coming on the blueline and adding at least one scoring prospect (Lindblom?) to go with a couple of UFA’s the Flyers prospects for next season look a lot better than what most people are feeling these days about the team. Hextall knows that which is why he needs to load up his unprotected list with anyone making money.
File photo courtesy of Lewis Bleiman
The bottom line – For the first time in a while the Flyers should have some money to spend in free agency but it won’t be enough. The blueline is a mess but will see a huge injection of youth starting next season. The Flyers best players seem to have their best days either behind them or in front of them and our guess is it’s not looking good for the future, especially for Giroux.
If Hexy can spend money the right way, and the promise that some of their top defensive prospects kick things into high gear, next season will look more like a playoff team rather than a team on the decline.
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