TAMPA, Florida – Over the last six years, the Chicago Blackhawks have reached the spotlight series in three of those seasons, winning in 2010 and 2013 and meeting the Lightning in this season’s tilt. For Tampa Bay, their epic journey is just beginning. They are expected to compete among the league’s elite for many season to come. Both teams were built in the same way with the Blackhawks having started their development into one of the League’s elite just a little earlier than the Lightning.
Game One of the Stanley Cup Final is set for Wednesday at the Amalie Arena in Tampa in what should be a lengthy battle between two teams who possess exceptional skill, a speedy attack, smothering defense and spectacular goaltending. It has all the marking of being one of the fastest and most exciting Final in recent memory.
While Chicago has the hardware, Tampa Bay is on the precipice of greatness. It reminds me of the transition from Montreal (four straight championships from 1975-79) to the New York Islanders (four straight championships from 1979-83). It is similar to when the New York Islanders surrendered to the dominant, Wayne Gretzky-led Edmonton Oilers (four Cups, 1983-85 and 1986-88 with Montreal winning the 1985-86 campaign).
Since the 1986 Championship, 16 different teams have won 25 championships (the 2005 season was wiped out due to a labor dispute work stoppage). It is a transition of another kind, one which recognizes the need for fiscal control by applying more certainty to labor costs. This balanced the playing field for all teams no matter what the market.
What makes Chicago’s run impressive is the ability to maintain elite status where players want larger payouts once their contracts are up for renewal and the need to replace those players who depart under those terms while keeping the team in the League’s upper echelon. This is the area where Chicago is today and where Tampa Bay is about to be. Until their off-season fortunes play out, hockey fans are about to be treated to two evenly-matched teams, battling in as many as seven games, all in the quest for hockey supremacy.
Below is a look at how the two teams match-up heading into the opening game.
OFFENSE – Tampa Bay was the top scoring team (3.16 goals per game) during the regular season while Chicago was 17th (2.60 goals per game) among the 30 teams. In the stingy postseason where scoring drops as defenses tighten, Tampa Bay ranked 4th (2.75 goals per game) while Chicago vaulted to 3rd (3.29 goals per game), a unexpected improvement over their regular season production.
Tampa Bay stayed consistent with their shots on goal through the year, ranking 9th overall in the regular season with 29.6 shots for to ranking 10th in the postseason with 28.0 shots per game. Chicago led the League in the regular season with 33.9 shots per game and maintained a solid number with a 5th overall ranking in the postseason with 32.6 shots per game.
During 5-on-5 play, both teams rank high in the League. Tampa Bay was 2nd overall with 1.28 goals before dropping slightly to 5th overall in the postseason with 1.10. Chicago maintained the same rank all season long, 4th, with 1.19 goals during the regular season and 1.11 in the playoffs.
When outshooting opponents, Tampa Bay won 62.2% of the time during the regular season, good for 5th overall and maintaining a relatively similar result in the postseason, winning 60% of the time, good for 6th overall. Chicago isn’t quite as successful when getting the better share of the shots on goal. In the regular season, they ranked 9th overall, winning 59.6% of the time, but in the postseason, while their rank plummeted to 9th overall, they are winning just 40% when outshooting their opponent.
Individually in the playoffs, the Lightning is led by center Tyler Johnson with 12 goals and 21 points in 20 games. He has converted on the power play twice with 4 game-winning goals. Nikita Kucherov is close behind with 9 goals and 19 points with 3 power play goals and 3 game-winners. Captain Steven Stamkos is third in team scoring with 2 goals and 17 points, with all but three of those points, all assists, coming in the last 13 games. He has 8 power play goals and one game-winner.
For the Blackhawks in the second season, Patrick Kane with 10 goals and 20 points including 2 power play markers and 3 game-winning goals leads the way, this after missing 21 games to end the regular season. Captain Jonathan Toews has netted 9 goals and 18 points with 3 power play goals. Two of his goals set the tone for the game seven victory against Anaheim. A unique element to Chicago’s offense comes from the blue line where defenseman Duncan Keith has 2 goals and 18 points. He has 5 power play points and logs nearly 32 minutes per game. He is second in playoff assists to Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf.
There is firepower on both sides, but I give the slight edge to Tampa Bay on this one.
DEFENSE – Tampa Bay allowed 2.51 goals per game during the regular season, good for 12th overall. Despite allowing 5 or more goals in six of their 20 postseason games, their rank has slightly improved to 8th by allowing 2.45 goals per game. Chicago has become a little more porous as the season has gone on. During regular season play, Chicago ranked 2nd overall by only allowing 2.27 goals per game with a goaltending group featuring three different netminders. In the postseason, though, Chicago has dropped to 12th overall, allowing 2.94 goals per game.
In the way of shots against, Tampa Bay has been solid all season. During regular season play, the Lightning have allowed just 27.9 shots against, ranking 5th overall. That success has carried over into the postseason with a 4th overall rank by allowing just 28 shots per game. Chicago has allowed plenty more shots per game during the regular season and it has worsened in the post season. During regular play, the Blackhawks allowed 30.22 shots against, good for 22nd overall. In the postseason, however, they have allowed nearly 7 more shots per game, ranking 15th overall among the 16 playoff teams (36.9 shots per game). Crawford’s return to net in the first-round clincher began a stretch of stellar play, but at some point, it might become a problem in allowing so many shots. Granted, that number is a bit inflated as Chicago has been involved in an additional 160+ minutes of overtime play this postseason.
When being outshot by opponents, Tampa Bay ranked 5th overall with a 60.6% victory rate in the regular season and have increased their rank to 3rd overall by winning 60% of their games during the postseason. Chicago seems to thrive on facing more shots than they take on their opponent. In the regular season, the ranked 7th overall, winning 58.6% of the time, but in the postseason, they rank 2nd overall at a staggering 90% win rate when outshot. This is Crawford standing tall when the games go long into overtime.
Puck control is the key to getting scoring chances and face-offs are a key part of this strategy. Tampa Bay ranked 16th in the regular season in face-off winning percentage by winning the puck of the draw 49.7% of the time. In the post season, their ranked 8th in winning 50.5% of the time. Chicago ranked 5th in the regular season by winning 52% of their draws and just slipped slightly in the playoffs to 6th place by winning 51% of their face-offs.
GOALTENDING – Ben Bishop of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Corey Crawford of the Chicago Blackhawks will battle head-to-head in what will be a new experience for one and a regular occurrence for another.
Bishop is experiencing his first-ever NHL playoff season. In 20 games, he is 12-8 with a 2.15 goals against average and a 0.920 save percentage with three shutouts and three assists. He has allowed 42 goals in those games.
While he has allowed five goals or more in three of his twenty games, he has survived an opening round, road elimination game in Detroit before returning home to deliver a 2-0 series-clinching shutout to the Red Wings. He has also defeated likely Vezina Trophy winner Carey Price in round two before delivering a 2-0 road shutouts in New York against the Rangers in games 5 and 7 to clinch the Eastern Conference title.
Crawford began this postseason with a rocky start. Against Nashville in the first round, he gave way to rookie Scott Darling who played in five of those games registering a 3-1 record, 2.21 goals against average and 0.936 save percentage. If it weren’t for Darling stepping in when Crawford faltered, Chicago might be watching the Final on television.
Crawford was pulled in game one of the Nashville series after allowing three goals on ten shots in what was a double overtime Chicago victory, thanks to Darling. In game two, Crawford allowed six goals on 35 shots in a loss which sealed his temporary fate allowing Darling back in. The Blackhawks back-up goaltender won two of his next three, winning a triple overtime game in game four in Nashville before a loss in game five. Crawford returned for the series-clinching victory in game six, defeating Vezina Trophy candidate Pekka Rinne.
He then proceeded sweep Minnesota which was bolstered with a late-season run and playoff momentum by Devan Dubnyk, another Vezina Trophy candidate.
Chicago then battled the Anaheim Ducks, the top-rank in the Western Conference. In a seven game series with the firepower of Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kessler, Crawford was the steadying factor, especially in a 3-2 triple overtime victory in game two at Anaheim (stopping in 60 of 62 shots) and double overtime victory in game four at Chicago (stopping 47 of 51 shots). This came before a series-clinching victory in Anaheim in which he stopped 35 of 38 shots.
Crawford’s rocky road in 14 games this postseason involves a 9-4-1 record with a 2.56 goals against average, a 0.919 save percentage and one shutout. He has improved with each series and the opening round against Nashville is thankfully in the rear view mirror.
During his injury-shortened regular season while appearing in 57 games, he posted a 52-20-5 record, 2.27 goals against average and a 0.924 save percentage with 2 shutouts and one assist.
Overall in the postseason, his experience is quite solid. In 70 NHL playoff games, he holds a record of 41-27-4 over 5 seasons. He has a 2.28 goals against average with a 0.920 save percentage and 4 shutouts. Perhaps his biggest accomplishment in the postseason is the role he played in backstopping the 2013 Stanley Cup Champions against the Boston Bruins in six games.
SPECIAL TEAMS – On the man advantage, both teams were getting better output in the playoffs than the regular season. Tampa Bay was in the middle of the pack at 14th overall with an 18.8% power play conversion rate, but in the postseason, they score 22.2% of the time on the man advantage, good for 5th place. Chicago ranked 20th overall in the regular season at a 17.6% scoring rate, but have improved to 7th at 19.6% rate in the postseason.
When shorthanded, Tampa Bay ranked 9th overall with a 83.7% survival rate and has an 8th place rank in the post season with an 81.2% kill rate. Chicago ranked 10th in the regular season with an 83.4% survival rate, but dipped significantly in the postseason, ranking 11th at a 75.5 kill rate. Tampa Bay might really push with the man-advantage to take capitalize on Chicago’s weakness while playing short.
AS THE GAME IS PLAYED – Because teams play differently as the game carries on and leads are taken or surrendered, it is interesting to analyze both team’s results depending on how a game plays out.
When scoring first, Tampa Bay ranked 8th overall in the regular season with a 76.1% victory rate. In the postseason, they rank 1st overall with 100% winning rate, occurring in 9 of their 20 post season games. Chicago ranked 9th in the regular season winning 76.1% of games in which they score first. They improved to 4th overall in the postseason with a 90% victory rate in 9 of their 10 games in which they scored first. That first goal will prove to be critically important.
When trailing first, the results take a different turn. Tampa Bay won 41.7% of the games in which they trailed after one period during the regular season. That percentage has dipped to 27.3% in the postseason in which they trailed after one period, good for 9th overall. Chicago, on the other hand, improved their victory rate when trailing after one period, from 12th place at a 36.1% victory rate to 3rd place and a 42.9% winning rate. Chicago’s experience in being resilient will play a role in this series if the Lightning gain an upper hand.
Leads are important in hockey and both teams do well when getting them. Tampa Bay ranked 7th in the regular season when leading after one period (83.3% winning rate) and 3rd when leading after two periods (94.3%). In the postseason, the Lightning have dominated winning every game after holding a lead after one period (5 games) and two periods of play (8 games).
Chicago was dominating during the regular season, ranking 1st overall by winning 89.7% of the time when leading after one period and 1st overall when leading after two periods at a 100% winning rate. In the postseason, they rank 1st overall by winning 100% of the time when leading after one period (6 games) and 2nd overall when leading after two periods (7 games).
THE FINAL VERDICT – this will be a struggle between two very similar teams, each loaded with plenty of talent. The wild card is the role experience Chicago has in comparison to Tampa Bay. The Blackhawks have been through the good and the bad at the highest levels of play. Their experience has afforded them two cup victories in 2010 and 2013 with early-round failure in 2011 and 2012 and then a Conference Final loss at home in 2014 against Los Angeles. Clearly they know what it takes to win it all and have faced challenges along the way to hoist the Cup.
But I wonder how significant a role the path Tampa Bay has taken will play in this series. Few players are left from the 2011 trip to the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston where they lost 1-0 in game seven. After missing the playoffs the next two season, the Lightning lost in a four-game sweep to Montreal in 2014, a result largely sealed with the loss of Ben Bishop just prior to the end of the regular season. Keep in mind, too, this came after Steven Stamkos was lost for nearly half the season, returning just prior to the playoffs and at less than top speed. Both setbacks served to give the young team experience in facing adversity.
This season, the Lightning, poised to battle comparatively with the Blackhawks, have faced ups and downs in their 20 postseason games in 2015. They have defeated a very good and tough Detroit team in seven games staving off elimination in game six on the road with a 5-2 victory before delivering a 2-0 shutout in game seven at home. The Lightning turned aside Montreal and Vezina Trophy candidate Carey Price in six games after taking a 3-0 series lead. And in the Conference Final, Tampa Bay knocked off the New York Rangers, the League’s top team, and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, in seven games. This included clutch, 2-0 road victories in games five and seven.
So Tampa Bay should not be taken lightly at all, They have grown a great deal in six weeks. This seems like a series that will go seven games, ending with a double overtime victory by Tampa at home of the stick of Tyler Johnson, who will capture a Conn Smythe trophy for playoff MVP.
Game 1 is set for Wednesday night at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. Face-off is set for 8:00 PM ET and is being televised on NBC, CBC, TVA Sports. The schedule for the remaining games in the Stanley Cup Final are listed below.
Game 2 Sat., June 6th at 7:15 p.m. Chicago at Tampa Bay NBC, CBC, TVA Sports
Game 3 Mon., June 8th at 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Chicago NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
Game 4 Wed., June 10th at 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Chicago NBCSN, CBC, TVA Sports
*Game 5 Sat., June 13th at 8 p.m. Chicago at Tampa Bay NBC, CBC, TVA Sports
*Game 6 Mon., June 15th at 8 p.m. Tampa Bay at Chicago NBC, CBC, TVA Sports
*Game 7 Wed., June 17th at 8 p.m. Chicago at Tampa Bay NBC, CBC, TVA Sports
* if necessary
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