The first-round central division bout between the St. Louis Blues and the Winnipeg Jets is set. This series is going be a tightly contested and very unpredictable. Both teams entered the playoffs with vastly different narratives. The St. Louis Blues entered the playoffs on a bright note by going 8 – 1 – 1 in their last 10 games where the Winnipeg Jets have had a much slower 4 – 5 – 1 record in their last 10 games to close out the year.
While the Jets are no strangers to the playoffs after making it all the way to the conference finals last season, they have further bolstered their lineup for another deep run by acquiring Kevin Hayes at the deadline. It is cup or bust for the Jets as they have plenty of high-profile players with expiring contracts. Players like Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor are pending RFA’s this offseason and will be expecting big pay days.
The Blues missed the playoffs by just a single point last year but have had six years of consistent playoff hockey and still has plenty of playoff veterans on their roster. St. Louis was last in the NHL with 34 points on January 2nd and have climbed back to place third in their division with 99 points on the year. It was in large part helped to both a goaltending and coaching change that worked wonders for the Blues.
Winnipeg Jets
Forwards
The forward core is led by Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele who led the team in scoring with 91 and 84 points respectively. The rest of the supporting cast has been very reliable with Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine both posting 30 goal seasons to help push the Jet’s offense into elite territory. The top line can produce goals like crazy with 94 goals between them while the rest of the cast has not been too shabby themselves. There is a concern that there is not enough to push the Jets past some of the contending teams that bolstered their lineup like San Jose and Calgary, but Winnipeg’s top six is one of the best in the league and it still has room to get much better.
One of the most talked about players for the Winnipeg Jets is Patrik Laine. Despite having 34 goals on the year, Laine has been on a horrifically bad dry streak after only have a single goal since March 1st. That kind of pace cannot continue especially when he is an elite player with the most shots on the Jets. If Patrik Laine can pick it up, the Jets could have way too much scoring for the Blues to handle.
Defense
The Winnipeg Jets have a strong defense led by Dustin Byfuglien. They feature headliners such as Josh Morrissey and Tyler Myers to help round out the defensive core. While Jacob Trouba has had a breakout year and is a giant piece of Winnipeg’s top four. Despite the big names, the Jets are not league leading defensively as they are 15th in goals against and are 27th in shots against per game. Offensively, there is not much to talk about other than Jacob Trouba producing 50 points for the first time in his career. The defense is doing what they need to have an adequate amount of success. The Jets need something more out of their defense as they are allowing 33.4 shots per game, a pace which will be abused in the playoffs.
Goaltending
Without a doubt, the Jets are at a disadvantage in the goaltending department. Connor Hellebuyck has been performing very well individually on a regular basis. With a 34 – 23 – 3 record, a .913 save percentage, and a 2.90 goals against average, Hellebuyck has been a consistent strong point for the Jets. Despite having a very heavy workload, Connor has been at the top of his game almost all season and has been very consistent throughout. He desperately needs to win this goaltending matchup against the red-hot Jordan Binnington to prove without a doubt that he is an elite NHL goaltender.
Summary
The Jets should have been the better team on paper at the start of the season. However, they enter the playoffs with a disastrous past 10 games and when one of their key pieces has been going on such a dry streak, it can be very difficult for the Jets to individually rally back if the team falls behind in the series. I fear that there could be a lack of goal scoring from the Jets, but if they turn around their problems Winnipeg could repeat what they did to St. Louis earlier in the season. Connor Hellebuyck needs to keep his current pace and pray to god that his defense can limit the shots that he has to face. They have the fourth best powerplay but are 23rd in the league on the penalty kill. Despite the Jets being the higher seed, there is plenty for the St. Louis Blues to exploit. Coach Paul Maurice has his work cut out for him and the first two games at home could easily be a death sentence if they give up both games early.
St. Louis Blues
Forwards
The St. Louis Blues turned everything around in large part thanks to a stellar 2019 campaign. Since January 1st, the Blues have climbed up from the basement of the league to the 3rd seed in one of the most competitive divisions in the NHL. The forward core has names like Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly but nobody on the Blues were per game players this season. Yet, Ryan O’Reilly has a career high 77 points this year with Tarasenko not too far behind with 68; Most of which coming from the latter half of the season. The Blues are much older and more experienced in playoff hockey than the Jets, but not older to the point where it will slow St. Louis down in the playoffs. Goal scoring is going to be very difficult for the Blues, as they have only Vladimir Tarasenko has reached the 30-goal mark, while the Jets have three players who have hit that mark this season. Still, the Blues are 15th in the league in goals per game despite most of their goals not coming from their top line. Their depth is just as good as their counterparts but does not feature the same names which could provide either a small benefit or a disadvantage later into the series.
Defense
The Blues would not be anywhere if it were not for their defense this season. Even when St. Louis was the last place team in the league, their defense was a constant bright spot that is starting to now shine. Led by Alex Pietrangelo, the Blues defense is very big and is not afraid to block shots. Colton Parayko has blocked a team leading 157 shots with Pietrangelo blocking 139. The team overall is 5th in the league for goals against with 2.68 goals against average for the regular season. The Blues defense combines for a lot of shots, four defensemen have 100 shots or more on net and the team has the 6th best shot differential in the league. The St. Louis Blues will be a tough customer defensively, they don’t allow pucks to the net often because the Blue’s defense will get in the way of shooting lanes and make it hard to create scoring opportunities.
Goaltending
The numbers that Jordan Binnington produced this season were insane. After taking over goaltending duties from Jake Allan at the start of the new year, Binnington is putting up Vezina trophy numbers. He is 24 – 5 – 5 with a .927 save percentage and 1.89 goals against. To show how insane those numbers are… He leads all starting goaltenders in goals against, is tied for 5th in save percentage and leads the league in win percentage. It also helps a bit that Jordan Binnington is 8 – 2 in his last 10 games. If he produces even somewhat similar numbers as he did during the regular season, St. Louis is going to have an easy time against Winnipeg.
Summary
The Blues are one of the best defensive teams in the league with the best goaltender entering the playoffs. The Blues will struggle in the scoring department due to a lack of weapons but that can change rapidly if their first line starts to get momentum. St. Louis should be over the moon with their 2019 so far and there is no indication that will change. This is the perfect matchup where they can wear out an overworked goaltender who faces a lot of shots on average regardless of opponent. No matter what, the Blues have much more playoff experience than the Jets and they have faced this kind of team plenty of times. Coach Craig Berube has only been to the playoffs once as a NHL head coach so there could be a few growing pains at the very start of the series.
Head to Head
While Winnipeg wins the head to head series 3 – 1 by scoring five or more goals in each of their wins, all those games took place early in the year while their starter was Jake Allan and coach Mike Yeo was still in charge. A lot has changed since they played last, so those results should be taken with a grain of salt. On paper, the top six for the Winnipeg Jets completely trumps St. Louis’s offense at every turn while the Blues have the advantage in defense and goaltending. If the St. Louis Blues can hold off the Winnipeg Jet’s high-flying offense, then this series is looking very open and shut. But If the Jets offense can start to score goals like they did earlier into the season, the series could go the distance.
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