Bartnick’s Stanley Cup semifinals predictions

And then there were 4.

The Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights, New York Islanders and Montreal Canadiens have advanced to the 3rd round of the Stanley Cup Finals. These teams have a lot in common. They all have a balanced four-line attack of forwards. Gone are the one-line, top heavy teams. Forwards who have huge cap hits are golfing. The remaining teams have big, physical defensemen. Also gone are the teams that have more finesse than bulk on the blueline. Maybe the most important reason these teams remain is they have exceptional goaltending.

How did they get there?

The Montreal Canadiens swept the Winnipeg Jets. Taking nothing away from Montreal but Winnipeg was pathetic. Only Adam Lowry played like he gave a damn. Did the Mark Scheifele suspension hurt them, yes but it was not the only reason they got swept. The Pierre-Luc Dubois trade looks worse and worse every day. You think they could have used Patrik Laine in this series?

Montreal stuck to their system and their Big 4 defensemen (Weber, Petry, Edmundson, Chiarot) knocked the will right out of the Jets. Carey Price was great, but he was rarely under fire. The Montreal forwards from the oldest (Corey Perry) to the youngest (Cole Caufield) all made plays and buried chances.

The New York Islanders beat the Boston Bruins in 6 games. The Islanders may not have superstars (Matt Barzal is becoming one), but they 12 very good forwards and the best shut defensive pair (Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock) in the NHL. Anthony Beauvillier is also moving up from a nice complimentary scorer to a star. After the Perfection Line Boston got very little from the rest of the forwards except for David Krejci. The series turned when Islander forward Cal Clutterbuck landed a bone crunching hit on Bruins defensemen Brandon Carlo. Carlo was knocked out of the series. Boston’s already thin defensive core could not handle losing him. The Bruins in hindsight probably should have put Jeremy Swayman in net for Game 6 instead of an injured Tuukka Rask.

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes in five games. The Lightning would have beat the Soviets of the 70’s in five games. The Bolts are a well-oiled machine right now. Their talent and work ethic are overwhelming. A few years ago, Tyer Johnson was one of Tampa’s best players now he’s on the fourth line. Braden Point would be the best player on most NHL teams in Tampa he’s not in the top 3. The Lightning’s power play is lethal. Point maybe the best to ever play the bumper position player on the power play. The NHL’s best defensemen (Victor Hedman) and goalie (Andrei Vasilevskiy) are playing their best hockey of the year. Tampa is controlling the play like Scotty’s Bowman’s old Red Wing teams did.

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Colorado Avalanche in 6 games. While Colorado net minder Philipp Grubauer was adequate in net Vegas’ Marc Andre Fleury was phenomenal. After a sublime Game 1 (vs Fleury’s backup) Colorado’s top line became less effective as the series wore on. Vegas offense meanwhile had a more balanced attack and forechecked the Avs defense into submission. Vegas original number 1 line on  Willian Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Riley Smith played inspired hockey. Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty exactly how Vegas expected them to play when they were acquired, like superstars.

Predictions-

The Islanders have overcome every obstacle thrown at them so far. If any coach can figure out how to stop the Lightning its New York’s Barry Trotz, but the Lightning have much more depth scoring than New York’s previous opponents (Boston and Pittsburgh). Vasilevskiy in net for Tampa will be exponentially harder to score on than injured Tuukka Rask and the sieve Tristen Jarry. If the Islanders rough style of play leads to the Lightning getting power plays the series will end early. The Isles will never lose on the Island, but the Lightning will prevail. TAMPA IN 7

The Montreal Big 4 defensemen will tire at some point. The Knights waves of forechecking will have a cumulative effect like it has in every series. The Habs have not seen a rugged defense like Vegas’. The Habs smaller forwards will have less room to make plays. Fleury has been waiting a decade to redeem himself in Montreal. VEGAS in 6