I have been doing Stanley Cup Playoff predictions for several years and it has never been this difficult to pick first round winners. There were years when the first round was easy to pick, Sure there was an occasional upset, but the first round usually went by the chalk. Up until a few years ago only a handful of teams could legitimately win the Stanley Cup. Now I can make a case for almost every playoff team. Gary Bettman’s 
parity plan is working for the league and the fans if not for my picks. For all of the fans, players and organizations that complain about the playoff format, you’re going to have to beat great teams at some point. Why not learn if you have what it takes in April and not late May? They say round is the toughest round to get out of. It separates the golfers and fishermen from the contenders. It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The New York Islanders made an incredible turnaround this season. They overcame the loss of superstar captain John Tavares and made the playoffs. New Head Coach Barry Trotz installed a defensive system and goaltenders Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss resurrected their careers by leading the NHL in goals against. New GM Lou Lamoriello reunited Matt Martin with Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck. The “Best 4th Line in Hockey” was back. Matt Barzal has filled John Tavares number one center skates. Islander fever is back on the Island. Unfortunately for the Islanders they are playing the Penguins in round one. All-time great, Sidney Crosby has never played better; he scored 100 points. Crosby is being talked about for a Selke Trophy. Crosby’s defense has been that good. The Penguins other first ballot Hall of Famer Evgeni Malkin had a disappointing season for him. Malkin vows to make amends in the playoffs. Defenseman Kris Letang was getting Norris consideration before a late season injury. Letang is healthy now. The Penguins defense has more depth now than any of their previous title runs. GM Jim Rutherford made some shrewd moves this season. He added size, youth, scoring and above all passion. The Penguins seems poised for a long run. Head Coach Mike Sullivan says Goaltender Matt Murray is in Stanley Cup form. He would know because they’ve won two of the last three Cups together. PENGUINS in 6
The Washington Capitals won the Cup last year. Alex Ovechkin is hell bent on doing it again. While teammates TJ Oshie and Evgeni Kuznetsov had less than stellar years Ovi won the Rocket Richard Trophy leading the NHL in goals. Nicklas Backstrom was his point machine self. Tom Wilson seems to have learned how to play within the rules. The Capitals defense is not as stout as it was last year. Barry Trotz took his system to Long Island. Losing defenseman Michal Kempny does not help. Brayden Holtby is still in net. He now has Cup winning confidence. The first team standing in the Capitals way to a repeat is the Carolina Hurricanes. The NHL’s Cinderella story. The end of game SURGE celebrations made headlines, but the Canes were no gimmick. They play fast, shoot a lot and receive a lot of offense from a very talented defense. Sebastian Aho turned into a true superstar. Justin Williams a true captain. New Carolina Head Coach Rod Brind’ Amour is another coach of year candidate. Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney played great in the regular season. We are now in the playoffs. CAPITALS in 5
The Tampa Bay Lighting earned 128 points in the regular season. Second most all time, second only to Scotty Bowman’s ‘77 Canadiens. The Lightning have an embarrassment of talent up front. Nikita Kucherov scored 128 points. More than any Russian-born player ever in a single season. Steven Stamkos had 45 goals. Stamkos is now only the Bolts’ third-best forward behind Kucherov and Brayden Point. The Lighting have the best set of 1-12 forwards since Scotty Bowman’s Red Wing teams. If Norris Trophy Defenseman Victor Hedman is not ready to start playoffs Ryan McDonagh can hold down the fort along Vezina Trophy candidate Andrei Vasilevsky in net. The Presidents Trophy winning Lightning might not win the Cup but they won’t lose in the first round. The Columbus Blue Jackets snuck into the playoffs. Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene did just enough for the GM Jarmo Kekalainen and Coach John Tortorella to keep their jobs. Before they both Panarin and Duchene leave town. The Blue Jackets have two great defensemen Seth Jones and Zach Werenski. They can’t play every shift. Columbus Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky will not win a playoff series before he skips town too. LIGHTNING in 5
All season we knew the Boston Bruins were going to play the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the playoffs. All season we assumed the Bruins would beat the Leafs. Not so fast. The Bruins needed seven games to dispatch Toronto last year. Since last season the Leafs have added superstar John Tavares and rugged defenseman Jake Muzzin. The Bruins top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pasternak is the best in the league. The rest of the Bruins forward lines can hit but do they score enough. The Bruins defense is skilled and nasty. Boston Harbor Monster Zdeno Chara is playing like its 2013. Charlie McAvoy, Tory Krug and Brandon Carlo make a formidable top four. Toronto’s defense after Morgan Rielly is much maligned. Fredrik Andersen in Toronto’s net is more reliable than Tuukka Rask is in Boston’s net. This year, Leaf’s coach Mike Babcock will not out coach himself. He will play Auston Matthews a ton. Matthews will dominate as Boston worries about Tavares and Mitch Marner. William Nylander will earn big contract. Kasperi Kapanen will make sure he gets his big contract. LEAFS in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Calgary Flames have the best record in the West. Surprisingly they don’t have a number one goaltender. Whether it’s Mike Smith or David Rittich the Flames don’t have to worry about the first round. The Flames will win their first round. The Flames opponent is the Colorado Avalanche. The Avalanche are a one-line team. One-line teams usually don’t win in the playoffs. Mikka Rantanen returns from injury to play alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. That line is dynamic but the Avs don’t have much else up front. Derrick Brassard was their big dead line acquisition. The Avs defense is adequate. Philipp Grubauer is a preverbal hot goaltender. He will need to be on fire, or the Flames will burn him; pun intended. The Flames offense score in waves. Johnny “Hockey” Gaudreau is a superstar. Matthew Tkachuk is the best old school power forward in the league. James Neal is on the third line. The Flames defense is led by Norris front runner Mark Giordano. FLAMES in 5
The San Jose Sharks vs Vegas Golden Knights is the best first round match up on paper but both teams are limping into the playoffs. The San Jose Sharks looked like the team to beat in the West a few months ago then defenseman Erik Karlsson got hurt and their goaltender Martin Jones couldn’t stop a beach ball. San Jose ‘s new core led by Tomas Hertl and Evander Kane had career years. The old core led by Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski showed they might not be ready to leave the South Bay. Karlsson and Brent Burns stack up points from the San Jose blue line. Martin Jones needs to improve if the Sharks are going to win this series. The Knights Hall of Fame goaltender Marc Andre Fleury got hurt near the end of the season. The Knights lost momentum. Momentum they built after acquiring Mark Stone at the deadline. Stone fortified Vegas’ second line. The Knights first line played ok this season but was not as dominant as last season. The fourth line led by Ryan Reaves is still destroying people physically. The Knights blue line rounded into form after Nate Schmidt returned from suspension. The Sharks don’t want Fleury to end their season again because it maybe the end of an era in San Jose if he does. SHARKS in 7
The St Louis Blues are the trendy pick to win the West. They will not beat the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets played the last half of the season without any motivation and missing their two best defensemen Dustin Byfuglien and Josh Morrissey. The Jets star forwards Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine and Blake Wheeler could have played better in the regular season but that doesn’t matter now. The Blues had a remarkable mid-season turnaround. They went from dead last in the NHL to almost winning the Central division. Head Coach Craig Berube scared the team into winning. Vlad Tarasenko returned to the scoring machine he is. Alex Pietrangelo into the stud number one defensemen he is. Berube also got stellar goaltending from rookie Jordan Binnington. Binnington has had a remarkable second half. Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck broke the record for wins by a US born goalie last year. JETS in 6
One-line teams rarely win in the playoffs. This series will be the exception. The Dallas Stars will beat the Nashville Predators. The Predators have tons of talent but underachieved this year. Ryan Johansen led the team with only 64 points Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg were bang up but did not light the lamp enough this year. Kyle Turris is now a fourth liner. Brian Boyle was the only trade acquisition that produced. Wayne Simmonds disappeared. The Predators top four defensemen are much heralded but they also under performed. Mattias Eckholm the least of the bunch had the best year. PK Subban was busy being a talk show host and celebrity boyfriend. Goaltender Pekka Rinne is not going to save them in the playoffs. He never does. The Stars are known for their top line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov but under new coach Jim Montgomery they’ve also become a defensive juggernaut. Rookie Miro Heiskanen has past John Klingberg as Dallas’ best defenseman, The Stars have the best goaltending combo int he NHL. If often injury Ben Bishop can’t go Anto Khudobin is ready to step in. Mats Zuccarello will score some big goals ultimately making Dallas more than a one-line team. STARS in 6
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