HOUSTON, Texas – All season the Houston Aeros have done absolutely everything the most difficult way possible. It was not always by their choosing, such as their brutal schedule containing 15 instances of 3 games in 3 days, many of those stretching out to 4 games in five days.
Very often, they would lose big leads. Or start off in a hole and have to surge in the final minutes to pull off the win. Plus, they’re the only team in the playoffs who had more goals against than for in the regular season.
The difficulties have carried into the playoffs as they played in two radically inconsistent series, both requiring all seven games to get to the final handshake. The Aeros were even up 3-1 in round two, but had to have their backs completely against the wall before they could muster a winning performance.
Meanwhile, the Manitoba Moose, their opponent in the upcoming Western Conference finals, won the North Division with 107 points (tied with Milwaukee for most in the league). They have the AHL Goalie of the Year, Cory Schneider, between the pipes.
They have an expensive, veteran-heavy roster that’s a veritable “Who’s Who”, with six players making at least six-figures (Michel Ouellet, Curtis Sanford, Jason Krog, Mark Cullen, Nolan Baumgartner, and Jason Jaffray), according to the Winnipeg Sun. They also just received Vancouver’s 2008 first round draft choice Cody Hodgson from Brampton (OHL) after his playoff season ended.
Not to mention, Manitoba swept the Grand Rapids Griffins in round two, so the Moose are not only feeling confident, but they will have had time to rest their bumps and bruises for nine days when the series starts up on Friday in Winnipeg.
Here’s a breakdown by category:
Offense
In the playoffs the Aeros have three players (Corey Locke, Krys Kolanos, and Matt Beaudoin) in the top 20 scorers. Granted, the team has played four more games than Manitoba, who have only one top 20 scorer in Jason Krog. But whatever top-line scoring Manitoba might lack, they make up for in depth.
Aeros’ depth was hurt by the departure of Peter Olvecky to the World Championships and the injury to Jesse Schultz at the end of Round 1.
Match-up: Edge to Manitoba
Defense
The Aeros play a stifling team defense system that frustrates offensive-minded opponents. The unit also contains some scoring prowess, particularly from Maxim Noreau who is second in the league in defenseman scoring during the playoffs. However they did allow a mediocre 230 goals in the regular season so they can allow goals at times.
Manitoba, on the other hand, not only had the most scoring, but they also were the stingiest in the league, allowing only 188 goals all season. Between their defense and their goalie, they’re difficult to score against.
Match-up: Edge to Manitoba
Special Teams
The Aeros lead all the remaining playoff teams on the power play, scoring on almost one in four man-advantage opportunities. Manitoba is last among remaining teams on the power play, but the margin of difference isn’t terribly significant. On the other hand, the two teams are neck-and-neck at the top of the league for the best penalty kill, with Manitoba edging the Aeros by a nose.
Match-up: Draw
Goaltending
In the first two rounds Aeros rookie goaltender Anton Khudobin, who was called into action just prior to the playoffs due to injuries to the two main Aeros goalies, faced some heady veteran competition in Manny Legace and Drew MacIntyre.
In fact, MacIntyre has the best goaltending record in the playoffs, yet his team is finished for the season at the hands of Khudobin and the Aeros.
So the fact that Schneider is second behind MacIntyre in the league with a 1.69 goals against average and a 0. 936 save percentage, and the fact that Khudobin is ninth in the league with 2.48 and 0.911 might not be an indicator of success.
However, one doesn’t win the Goalie of the Year award for the league without some pretty serious goaltending chops, which he’s shown in the playoffs, allowing only five goals in the last four games.
Match-up: Manitoba
Overall
If there were a category for “consistency,” and perhaps there should be, the Moose would certainly win that match-up. And if there were a category for pulling surprises out of their hats through the power of team chemistry, the Aeros would certainly take that one.
Never the less, there’s no denying the veteran, championship experience on the Manitoba roster. It is easily double that of the Aeros and, along with the extra rest, the stellar goaltending, and the edge in offense and defense, this is clearly Manitoba’s series to win.
Prediction: Manitoba in 5.
Contact heather.galindo@prohockeynews.com
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