ST LOUIS, MO – With less than a week and three games to go, St. Louis is in a tight place. General Manager John Davidson must decide if he wants to buy, sell, or “trade.” Moves that could have a huge impact generally take weeks, months, even years to decide. Davidson has a week to decide what needs to be done and act upon it.
While St. Louis has had some success this season, 26-26-8 for 60 points (five points out of eighth place), one can’t help but wonder what could have been of this season. Season ending injuries to Erik Johnson and Paul Kariya put St. Louis in a tough place very early. The loss of Johnson has been alleviated recently thanks to improving play of Carlo Colaiacovo who is moving the puck up ice and creating plays from the defensive position. Promise has been increased by David Perron, the teams second leading points collector at the age of 20. From top to bottom, the Blues have no one on their roster lighting up the stats sheets. What they do have is a group of individuals who have grown together one period at a time to create a team that is going to make a playoff run up to the last days of the season. To glance at the fiscal edge of things, the Blues have promise in bringing in a productive player with $3.9 million available under the salary cap. Davidson has done well putting the team together with club President Larry Pleau, while those who bleed blue called for resignations in the beginning of the season, now clap with subtle enthusiasm. It would be a letdown to the fans to trade away the last four years for one playoff run. While the playoffs offer a young team the kind of wonderful experience that only playoff hockey can bring, a group that has an average age of 24 has nothing to gain by being broken up to fill an immediate hole with a player that can produce today. Like all teams in professional sports, the Blues are in business to make money, but now management must show that this is the bearing of promised fruit to the fans from the last four years. For the Blues to make any moves a few things will need to fall into place. For one, they must win two of the next three games against Dallas, Phoenix, and Detroit. The other two will be discussed further by position. Forwards Cap Numbers in U.S. $ millions Kariya, Paul $6 Tkachuk, Keith $4 Boyes, Brad $4 McDonald, Andy $3.33 Backes, David $2.5 Steen, Alexander $1.28 Oshie, T.J. $1.275 Berglund, Patrik $1.247 Hinote, Dan $1 McClement, Jay $.95 Perron, David $.918 Winchester, Brad $.465 While much has been made of Tkachuk and his becoming a rental player (due to the Blues trend of trading a player at the end of his contract and subsequently resigning them in the off-season), there has to be more involved for St. Louis to move him this time around. As Davidson pointed out on the team’s web site; “For the first time we have a full cupboard [of players] that we have lacked in years prior.” St. Louis is not in the market for prospects or draft picks this season. While they may have an interest, it’s slight. This seems to be a similar attitude with acquiring another high end player. While Davidson admits to having conversations with Tkachuk’s agent, he also admits to merely kicking the tires and having an open mind. For St. Louis to trade Tkachuk, the team must begin to start losing again. With a team this young, a player like Tkachuk has intangible benefits that won’t be understood until they’re gone. With that being said, the right offer may be just what the Blues are looking for. While the chances of Tkachuk being moved are at best 50/50, the potential still exists. St. Louis can benefit by having a guy like Tkachuk around for another year or two. However, Boston may well be his biggest potential suitor, and therefore may be gone from St. Louis for good this time around. Tkachuk is from the Boston area and carries a no trade clause. A team like the Bruins may be the only option that will persuade him to waive his no trade clause. To suspect that another forward will be moved is highly unlikely. For the most part, what St. Louis will be willing to part with has little market value and will return little for St. Louis. A good example is Dan Hinote. While Hinote typically is a pretty popular player, his statistics are drying up and he may go to a team too late in the season to help coax them along with his winning attitude to a big finish. It is probably safe to say, that any move made with the forwards will involve Tkachuk, and Boston may be required to pay a little more for his services since the Blues probably won’t get him back this time. Defense Brewer, Eric $4.25 McKee, Jay $4 Johnson, Erik $3.7 Jackman, Barret $3.6 Colaiacovo, Carlo $.966 Weaver, Mike $.7 Woywitka, Jeff $.643 Polak, Roman $.603 If the Blues are going to make any ripples in the water, it will be here. While a buyer for Jay McKee would be beneficial, it’s highly unlikely due to his $4 million cap hit next season and is injury concerns in recent years. Due to some pretty extensive injuries, the Blues may want to look for improvement on defense for this season and next. Don’t expect St. Louis to move one of their upper echelon players to acquire someone, but I would not be surprised to see a player like Jeff Woywitka moved if it means improving the team today and tomorrow. Defensemen are tough to gauge on value and often become expensive fast when they’re worth the money. The problem is that teams whom are willing to sell higher caliber defensemen want a lot back in return. Some of the better options for St. Louis unfortunately already play in the Central Division and therefore probably will not be available to the Blues. Goalies Manny Legace $1.39 Chris Mason $3 Ben Bishop $.139 Chris Holt $ Marek Schwarz $.069 While St. Louis is not lacking in NHL talent, there always seems to be a bit of a ‘what if’ and ‘but’ to the equation. There is no better example than here in net. St. Louis started the season with two of the best back up goalies in hockey. That is two of the highest priced non-every day players. This has shown yet again to be an issue for St. Louis who has been troubled to write the goalie position in ink ever since Curtis Joseph left in 1995. While Chris Mason has stepped up and shown that he is to be counted on for some time, Manny Legace played his way to Peoria. Once again St. Louis does not lack talent in net, and should not panic and run out to over pay for a goalie at the deadline. This is however, a place where St. Louis may want to consider upgrading. To bring in a player to finish out this year and take some pressure off of Mason by allowing them to split time next season would allow Ben Bishop one more year to develop and Marek Schwarz to show the Blues exactly what it is that he is going to offer. Does this sound familiar? It should since this has been St. Louis’ goaltending game plan for the last ten years or so. With that being said, don’t expect the Blues to once again try and make the same mistake again. In reality there’s not much out there to go after and anything that may be available may be way over priced. As illustrated before, don’t expect Davidson to mortgage the future for what is going to be little more than playoff experience for the younger players this season. St. Louis will not win the Stanley Cup, but given the opportunity, they may make Detroit nervous about an upcoming trip to Stockholm for next season’s opener. What to Expect Expect nothing and you may be pleasantly surprised. Davidson recently remarked on the team’s website that: “We have three games left before (that) deadline. We have to take a real serious look at everything.” Davidson also said in a conference call. “We know the job ahead of us to get in (the playoffs)…it’s going to be very difficult. But we want to make sure we send a message to our players and fans that we want to make the playoffs.” While the goal maybe to make the playoffs, and a wonderful moral victory it would be, don’t anticipate the Blues to over invest much of anything. This is a solid team that is working it’s way up the Western Conference ladder. The Blues will be back in the hockey elite very soon, the only question that remains is this season or next? St. Louis is better with Tkachuk on their roster than just about everyone in the NHL. Tkachuk has found himself a very respectful role of team leader/father figure to the young talent that overwhelms the clubs roster. His stats are respectful despite obvious declines in recent years. Tkachuk can play both left wing and center, and he loves St. Louis as much as St. Louis loves him. While public relations should not dictate every single move here, the club will be more successful with Tkachuk then without him on all avenues. So if a Tkachuk deal seems plausible, yet questionable, will the Blues do anything? To simply state something, yes. Buffalo is inquiring about Manny Legace due to a season ending injury to Ryan Miller. While Legace has little value, expect a low draft pick from the Sabres since Buffalo is almost going to have to make the move in order to be competitive down the stretch. The Blues are a very talented team with the potential to be a great team. They sit on the bubble due to tough injuries to top players and no other reason. This has been one of the best years in St. Louis for hockey since they won the President’s Trophy in 2000. Many look at a .500 record and think nothing of it, but a deeper look of the stats shows a team growing by leaps and bounds. Every GM in the NHL knows that St. Louis is legitimate and with a tough economy being felt in the industry sector, St. Louis is going to be hard push to spend more on limited resources. In the end, to answer the initial question of whether or not the Blues being buyers or sellers; we think neither. If St. Louis does make a move at all, they will be traders. By that definition they will not give up a thing, they will attempt a simple move of addition by subtraction. They may also use an expendable piece to strengthen themselves in the longer run. Do not look for St. Louis to make an exciting pick up or sell a big name, but don’t be surprised to see an expendable player used to bring in a similar player of lesser salary or lesser age. If St. Louis makes any moves they will be lateral moves and nothing more. Contact the author at john.strathman@prohockeynews.com
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