NEWARK, NJ – After four playoff rounds and eighty-four games of post-season action, the statistics to this point are a good indicator of how things will play out in Game Five. Even with the tightness of the first four games in the Final, there are some clear probabilities in certain situations which will steer the direction and outcome of tonight’s game.
Home ice advantage is no longer a benefit. Even before Los Angeles tied the NHL-record of winning all ten of their road games, during the first round of the playoffs, home teams won just 18 of 48 games for 37.5%. Not a good way to start the post-season after playing so hard to get one of the first four seeds and an extra home game to start the playoffs.
In the second round, home teams improved their success rate winning 14 of 21 or 67% of their games. In the third round, the result returned to worse than the first round with home teams winning just 4 of 11 games or 36.3%. In total through Game Four of the Final, home teams have won just 37 of 84 games for a 44% success rate. So home ice advantage does not have the value it once held.
Whoever scores first will likely win the game. Scoring the first goal in a playoff game has huge implications. Through the first 84 games, the team scoring the first goal has won 59 times for a 70.2% success rate. When looking at the contestants in the Final, the statistic is even more persuasive.
Of the ten games Los Angeles has scored the first goal, they have won 9 of them for a 90.0% success rate while the New Jersey Devils have scored first in nine of their games winning seven of them for an 81.8%.
When allowing the first goal to be scored against, Los Angeles has a better chance of winning than New Jersey. In seven games where the Kings have allowed the first goal, they have still come back to win five of them for a 71.4% success rate. New Jersey has not had nearly as much success. In eleven games where the Devils surrendered the first goal, they have gone on to lose seven of them for a 36.4% comeback rate.
Taking and keeping a lead is equally critical. Los Angeles has won 7 of 8 games when leading after one period, 8 of 8 when leading after two periods. New Jersey is pretty good too going 9 for 11 when leading after one period and 7 of 7 when leading after two periods.
When they are trailing an opponent, it is a little tougher, meaning that first goal is huge. Los Angeles is 1 for 2 when trailing after one period and 1 for 3 when trailing after two periods. New Jersey is 1 for 4 when trailing after one period and 1 for 5 when trailing after two periods. In order to win Game Five, the Devils will have to score first and keep the lead, otherwise, they won’t be playing any longer.
Another key factor will be special teams. On the power play at home, New Jersey is 8 for 38 for a 21.0% conversation rate. Unfortunately for the Devils, they are up against a Kings road penalty kill that is very stingy allowing just 2 goals in 47 attempts for a 95.7% success rate. To win, New Jersey will have to crack Los Angeles when they are in shorthanded situations.
On the road, Los Angeles power play has converted 5 of 45 attempts for an 11.1% success rate. New Jersey has killed off 20 of 26 shorthanded situations for a 76.9% kill rate.
Outshooting the competition tends to be bring victories. Both teams win games when they outshoot their opponents. Los Angeles has won 8 of 10 when outshooting their opponent while New Jersey has won 10 of 14. The real difference comes when Los Angeles and New Jersey are outshot by their opponent. Los Angeles seems to thrive when they are outshoot winning 6 of 7 games. New Jersey on the other hand has won just 3 of 8. New Jersey must outshoot Los Angeles to stay alive in the Final.
The Los Angeles Kings are one win away from capturing their first title. The New Jersey Devils stand in their way and aim to deliver an epic turnaround by winning the next three games. If they can complete a four-game winning streak, they will be just the second team to complete a comeback since 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs defeated the Detroit Red Wings to secure their fourth Stanley Cup.
The puck drops at the Prudential Center Saturday night at 8:00 PM (ET).
Contact: dennis.morrell@prohockeynews.com
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