Making room for Kovalchuk

NEWARK, NJ – While most members of the New Jersey Devils are clearing out their lockers in anticipation of a long Summer break following their disappointing end to the 2009/2010 season, for Ilya Kovalchuk the rumors, speculation and chatter is about to being again.
 
Kovalchuk, who was acquired from Atlanta just before the trade deadline, looks almost certainly to be a free agent on July 1^st. It seems highly unlikely New Jersey can find a way to accommodate a permanent deal to keep the star with the team, not that they ever suggested he was anything more than a ‘play-off rental’ anyway.
 
But wherever Kovalchuk ends up, offensive production is sure to see an upward swing. He has notched five straight 40+ goal seasons, including two 52 goal campaigns, since the NHL lock out in 2004/2005. And given that he has been on a mediocre to poor team for most of that time, and that he has only just turned 27, the chances are Kovalchuk has a few more 40+ goal seasons left in him on the right team.
 
And that’s where the debate begins, who is the right team? ‘Who’ is a massively important word on both sides – ‘who’ is right for Kovalchuk? And ‘who’ is Kovalchuk right for? Kovalchuk’s regular season numbers are about as impressive as they come, but his possible salary demands and his lack of serious play-off experience are likely to see the list of suitors shrink somewhat.
 
The superstar Russian winger is not entirely to blame for his lack of play-off experience. Spending years on a poor team in Atlanta didn’t give him much chance to shine in the post season, and though his first foray in to the post season with the Thrashers was a disaster all round, his second run this year with New Jersey might not have been such a failure for Kovalchuk personally. He did have two goals and six points for the misfiring Devils during the series and worked extremely hard night in, night out. He was one of the few Devils to come out of it with any kind of positives.
 
The salary cap issue, however does limit things further, and is probably the biggest issue facing any team with an interest in signing the Russian. While turning down the $100m mega deal Atlanta offered him suggests Kovalchuk is not purely about the money, he won’t come cheap either. It wouldn’t be far off the mark to see him command a similar amount to someone like Marian Gaborik, somewhere in the region of $7m per season, but most serious contenders are unlikely to have that kind of cap space – teams like Pittsburgh, Detroit and San Jose are simple too close to the league maximum, or, even if they did find room to bring the Russian winger in, would have precious little cap space left to fill out their rosters or cope with eventualities such as injuries afterwards.
 
There are, however a handful clubs in the NHL, and even beyond, who could possibly accommodate Kovalchuk in both salary cap terms, and also use a sniper of his caliber. Studying team rosters and cap numbers, two teams stand out as possible destinations; St Louis and Colorado.
 
The Blues finished 9^th this season in the end, five points shy of a play-off berth. They conceded fewer goals than both Nashville and Colorado, who finished 7^th and 8^th respectively, but also scored less. Adding Kovalchuk would give them the top tier scoring winger they have arguably lacked for some time now, even going back the when Brett Hull left town.
 
The Blues are a young, energetic team whose play would likely suit Kovalchuk well. And with Paul Kariya’s deal expiring in July, as well as the retirement of Keith Tkachuk, the Blues will not only have some cap room but also a need to find at least one quality winger if the club is too keep moving forward.
 
The Blues have just under $28m tied to 11 players for next season, but do have one other potential stumbling block in the form of Erik Johnson’s pending restricted free agency. Johnson is likely to be in line for a big raise, and as such this could nix any move for Kovalchuk.
 
The Avalanche could also use an elite scorer to bolster their ranks. They surprised a lot of folks this season, bouncing back from the franchise worst season since it arrived in Denver last year, to making the play-offs this year, but one area the Avs did struggle with in their recent series loss to San Jose was scoring. Once San Jose found their scoring touch they quickly wrapped the series up, with Colorado struggling to find a way past Evgeni Nabokov.
 
Marek Svatos is an unrestricted free agent in July, and Milan Hejduk is not getting any younger, so a top end winger would be a welcome addition to the Avalanche ranks and Kovalchuk’s speed and unheralded work ethic would likely fit in well with the new systems Coach Joe Sacco has brought in in Colorado. Kovalchuk’s play in his own end has improved somewhat over the last few seasons, but is often over looked because of his big offensive numbers. In many respects, he could be an excellent fit for a team with a bright future such as the Avs, especially as he would likely play along side one of the games top play makers in the shape of Paul Stastny.
 
However the stumbling block again is the impending restricted free agency of a number of other young talents in the Avalanche system. Chris Stewart, who had a break out year, is an RFA, as are Brandon Yip and stand out defenceman Kyle Quince, among others, while back up netminder Peter Budaj would be a UFA.
 
With $28m already committed to 12 players, the Avs would also need to be careful not too throw too much at Kovalchuk and compromise themselves both next season and beyond when the likes of Craig Anderson, TJ Galiardi and even Matt Duchene reach restricted, or unrestricted, free agency.
 
There has also been a lot written about a possible move from a Kontinental Hockey League team. The KHL has made no secret of its desire to attract a big star, preferable Russian, and Kovalchuk presents the best opportunity yet.
 
Talk of offering the equivalent of $10m per year has been bandied about, and despite the demise of former powerhouse Dynamo Moscow this season the league seems unfazed about the idea of offering Kovalchuk that kind of money. Given that Kovalchuk turned down so much to stay in Georgia, the KHL might be hard pressed to convince the star to join up purely based on money grounds, regardless of the considerable tax breaks on offer.
 
Wherever Kovalchuk ends up, it’s going to take creative cap management to ensure the team can maintain a good level of depth, but the potential benefits could be great.
 
Contact the author: rob.mcgregor@prohockeynews.com