Is this the Bolts’ series to lose?

BOSTON, Mass – So now it’s a best two-of-three in the Eastern Conference finals. From where I stand, despite the fact two of the potential three games will be played in Massachusetts it’s Tampa Bay’s series to lose.
 
As I pointed out in the preview for this series, if Tampa decides to press the issue, fore-checking and using their speed they will pressure the Bruins into oblivion. The four game set has shown enough sample sizes to bear that out. In game three the Lightning decided to clamp down. What happened? They gave up an early goal and struggled to compete losing 2-0. In game four, the Lightning coughed the puck up three times, and went down 3-0.
 
Suddenly Tampa Bay was desperate and decided to force the play, subsequently they went on to score five unanswered goals and returned from the abyss. From my observation point, if the Lightning continue to jump on the Bruins cross-ice passes in the defensive zone, use their speed to get around and behind Zdeno Chara they could win the series in six games.
 
Typical hockey analysts will tell you game five means everything. I agree, it’s important but each of these teams have shown a capability to come back during the playoffs. My take on game five is it is more important to Boston than it is to Tampa Bay. If the Bruins lose on Monday night they may never see a game seven.
 
Some random thoughts from the series.
Tampa Bay coach Guy Boucher seems more willing to adapt as each individual game plays out. He’s pulled his goaltender twice and changed styles a couple of times. The goaltending changes have worked brilliantly. Mike Smith has not been scored on in relief of Dwayne Roloson and his ability to push the puck up the ice quickly meshes with my belief in order to beat Boston you have to pressure them.
 
Claude Julien is a rock and will not change his style, system or goaltender at this point. I am not saying he will be static, Julien and his staff will modify, but not drastically change how the team plays. He is also very loyal to his goaltender in the playoffs. Last season he left Tuukka Rask in while the Philadelphia Flyers rallied (was Thomas too injured to play?) and with the exception of game three Thomas has been lackluster in this round. Thomas has played so well up to this point that it is hard to justify pulling him and inserting Rask, but in my mind I think the veteran needs to step back for a game. 
 
Julien should get a lot of credit for getting the team this far, but it seems once the course it set it stays set. Of course I don’t think the Bruins have the talent to run-and-gun with most teams in the league.   
 
Recently some Bruins reporters have been touting the resurgence of Tomas Kaberle’s play. Really? Seriously? If so, an expert no less than Julien isn’t buying in. Kaberle played less in game four than he did in game three and the Bruins had an entire half period in which they needed to rally. Not sure if these writers are trying to curry favor with Bruins management or not, but if a guy is playing better he shouldn’t be playing less than he is when he is playing poorly.
 
It’s time to admit it, the trade for Kaberle has been a disappointment. He’s played well enough for a fifth or sixth defenseman for the most part. That being said you don’t give up Joe Colborne, a first round pick and other considerations for a guy who is going to play about 12 minutes a game. 
 
The line of Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton and David Krejci are playing solid puck possession during their shifts, but they need to let the Tampa Bay net have the puck a little bit too. Scoring remains down.
 
Despite the stiff checking, Steven Stamkos still sparkles. He has the ability to make something out of nothing.
 
Meanwhile Tyler Seguin is a young man amongst veterans, but you can see the potential is there. Now it is a matter if the current Bruins regime will let the kid play creatively or if they will try to pound the square peg into the round hole as they did with Phil Kessel.
 
One guy who is opening my eyes in this series is Michael Ryder. If you are judging him solely on his specialty, goal scoring, the results are mixed. Ryder has five goals and six assists for 11 points in 15 games, that’s not bad. That being said, four of the goals are in two games, so he’s not exactly lighting it up on a consistent basis.
 
However, Ryder has at least a point in the Bruins last five games. What has been even more impressive is his back-checking abilities. Ryder has repeatedly made several game-changing defensive plays during this year’s playoffs. I have gone from counting his days down on his contract to wondering if he might be retained. Okay, not at his current cap hit of $4M, but something about half that would work for me.
 
Contact Tom.Schettino@prohockeynews.com

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