PHILADELPHIA, PA – The offense is back on track for the orange and black, and so is the winning but is everything back to normal in South Philly? The Flyers are 6-3-1 in their last ten games and have climbed in the standings from a potential lottery team to a potential playoff team over the past couple of weeks. The Olympic break is coming up as is the NHL trade deadline.
Will the Flyers make yet another major trade or only make minor trades to give them more depth going into the playoffs? Will the Flyers fall back in the pack and dump salary or will they make a strong playoff push to management a reason to make a move to upgrade the team. Will the offense continue to play well or will goaltending continue to look shaking with Ray Emery back in the lineup?
Let’s take a look at what the Flyers might do between now and the trade deadline shall we?
The offense – After a scoring draught that helped contribute to the demise of former Head Coach John Stevens, the Flyers are back on track offensively. They are now seventh in the league in goals per game (3.02) and are third on the power play. Look for the offense to slightly fluctuate from here on out but for the most part they should remain consistent.
The defense – The Flyers are 18th in goals allowed (2.88) and a huge part of that reason is due to the fact that they’re 21st on the penalty kill. As long as they remain the most penalized team in the league so don’t expect the PK to improve much until something is done about holding people accountable for their stupidity.
Flyers Mike Richards
Rookie James Van Riemsdyk (11 goals) and sophomore Claude Giroux (10 goals) have had to replace Mike Knuble and Joffrey Lupol’s offense and have combined for only two less goals than both. Still, the forwards are doing just fine without their help. Scott Hartnell has 11 goals but is third on the team in penalties. That must change or you can expect him to be moved either before the trade deadline or by the draft. My prediction is expect him to be part of a draft day trade that will be part of a package that will allow the Flyers to get back into the first round since they lost their first round pick due to the Chris Pronger trade.
The defense – Speaking of Pronger, he has been everything that Flyers had hoped for. He is the team’s best defenseman and is a team best plus 17. His partner in crime is Matt Carle who is a plus 15 but that number is due to being on the ice a lot then the team has scored since Pronger has to garner the most ice time on the defense. Carle is still very prone to losing the puck and his stats have benefited from being paired with Pronger. He could become trade bait either by the deadline or at the draft. Oskars Bartulis has taken Parents spot in the lineup and has played in more games than Parent. So far, like Parent, he also does not have a goal yet this season.
Braydon Coburn has been a big disappointment with a negative 9 rating, second worst on the team behind Bartulis’s negative 14 rating. He is an RFA at the end of the season. Don’t look for a major pay raise from the Flyers. If he wants one he will have to look elsewhere, especially since the team has Kevin Marshall and marc-Andre Bourdon waiting in the wings.
Overall the defense hasn’t doing a bad job. If it were not for the penalties and having to kill them off things would look rosier statistically. Still, the defense could use an upgrade somewhere in the 3-6 spots on D.
Overall the Flyers are doing well, but they are still out of a playoff spot but are only one point out with games in hand. Don’t look for them to go any higher than fifth in the conference and no lower than thirteenth from here on out. I know that sounds very open ended but one look at the standings in the Eastern Conference and you can understand why it is.
The trade deadline is March 3, and the draft isn’t until June. The Olympic break is from February 15-March 1 so don’t look for any exciting trade news between now and then with the Flyers despite the ramblings of certain anonymous hockey bloggers who throw out names to crank up hit counts.
Let’s squash one big rumor now and get it over with. The Flyers will NOT trade Jeff Carter in a package to get Ilya Kolvalchuk. Despite the temptation to get the prettiest dress in the window like a teenage girl on a spending spree, this is Rodeo Drive, not the shopping outlets. To get him would be mean moving Carter and Giroux. And that is just a starting point.
Chris Pronger
The major issue is, in a salary cap era, the Flyers would be breaking up a team’s offensive depth for one player. It would force them to finally utilize the NHL draft and that just is not going to happen. Without another first round pick in this year’s draft and no top prospects waiting in the wings, it pains me to say this but coming to Philly would not be a good idea for him.
So, who could be gone by the trade deadline? If the Flyers fall in the standings and look like there is no hope for them to make the playoffs, everyone but Richards and Pronger are safe. As close as they are to making the playoffs is almost as far as it is to making the draft lottery without a draft pick. In fact, with Anaheim passing Philly in the league standings, the Pronger trade looks worse and worse for the team, despite how well he has played for them. Oddly enough, you can bet the Philly will be talking to Anaheim again to get their draft pick back.
If they fall in the standings, look for the Flyers to start dumping salary. Briere and Kimmo Timonen have the biggest cap hits ($6.5 and $6.333). Timonen’s age is problem but a team looking to get over the hump might take a chance on him, but it would have to be a team with cap room and there aren’t many teams out there in the position. Still he could be moved for a rental whose cap hit will be removed come the off-season.
As far as forwards go, Briere has a no trade clause so it would have to be a team of his choosing if they want to move him. Hartnell would be next in line to be moved. His $4.2 cap hit isn’t too bad but teams might shy away from him due to his penchant for penalties.
On defense Timonen would be first on the list to be moved due to his cap number. Carle would be next in line to be moved. The team could find a buyer easier for him since he has youth and a lower cap hit on his side.
Personally, I would keep Briere and move Timonen. Age and production are two major reasons why. That and the fact that the Flyers best prospects are defensemen so they can replace a Timonen; Briere’s numbers can’t be replaced by any of their current prospects unless they can make a trade to get into the first round of the draft for a scorer.
If I am laying money down, Hartnell and Carle would both go if the team falls flat between now and the deadline. Their cap hits are easier to move then either Briere or Timonen. If the team is looking to just make and upgrade on defense like I think they will, Carle and/or Hartnell is gone. The Flyers have no prospects to trade. Giroux and Van Riemsdyk are the team’s future and will only get better and at a cheaper rate.
My bold prediction is the Flyers will just barely make the playoffs and get bounced in the first round if the play Washington, Pittsburgh or New Jersey. I know that’s not a warm and fuzzy endorsement but its reality check time. Penalty filling, stupid penalties and shaky goaltending will once again be the team’s downfall come playoff time.
Contact the author at Brian.Jennings@prohockeynews.com Contact the photographer at Lewis.Bleiman@prohockeynews.com (www.lebphotography.com)
You must be logged in to post a comment.