WASHINGTON, DC – Somewhere, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman is probably popping a bottle of champagne. Why? The “dream match-up” is about to happen.
Ovie vs. Sid the Kid.
On Saturday, May 2nd, the Verizon Center in Washington will be the epicenter of the hockey world when Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals gets underway. Fans across North America and maybe even the world will be fixated on the individual battle everyone has been waiting for: Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby versus Washington’s Alexander Ovechkin in a best-of-seven war.
While the Crosby vs. Ovechkin tussle will be the main attraction, there are many more players and subplots that will have a say in which one of the arguably two best players on the planet will play for the Prince of Wales trophy and a spot in the Stanley Cup finals.
The Season Series
Pittsburgh and Washington met four times this past season, twice at the Mellon Arena in Pittsburgh and twice at the Verizon Center in Washington. Although two of the four contests were decided by one goal, the stats tell a completely different story.
Washington won three of the games with Pittsburgh taking the final meeting in a shootout. Both games in the Steel City went to the Capitals and were especially annoying to the ‘Pens because in the October 16th meeting, Pittsburgh had a 3-0 lead only to allow Washington to score four unanswered goals while on January 14th, the Caps scored three straight third period goals to break a 3-3 tie. In the final meeting of the season on March 8th in Washington, Pittsburgh gave up two goals in the first 1:18 of the final period allowing the Caps back into things but held on to the tie long enough for Crosby to win the game in the shootout.
The most glaring statistic was the plus/minus rating for the individual players. Of the 22 players who played for the Penguins, only five posted an even or plus rating against the Capitals. The two players with the worst minus ratings were Crosby (-5) and Evgeni Malkin (-6). Conversely, no Washington player was worse than an even rating with Alexander Semin the best at +5.
How They Got There
The fourth-seeded Penguins were presented with what could have been a very tough series against in-state rival and fifth-seeded Philadelphia. After convincingly winning the first game, the ‘Pens needed the two goal heroics of veteran Bill Guerin to eek out an overtime victory in the second game.
Following a sloppy and undisciplined effort in a Game 3 loss, Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury almost single-handed ly pushed the Flyers to the brink with a 45-save effort in Game 4. Philly was able to save one elimination game but not the second as they bolted out to a 3-0 lead in the sixth game only to have the Penguins score five unanswered goals to close the series out.
Washington’s road to the conference semis was a bit more torturous. The second-seeded Capitals’ first round opponent was the seventh-seeded New York Rangers squad. Easy pickings for Ovechkin and the boys? To quote ESPN college football analyst Lee Corso, “not so fast my friends”.
The Capitals outplayed the Rangers in the first period of the first game but failed to score. New York took full advantage and went on to win that game 4-3 and followed with a brilliant 35 save effort by goalie Henrik Lundqvist and a Ryan Callahan goal to take a two games to none lead. At that point, ‘Caps coach Bruce Boudreau made a goaltending change, putting Simeon Varlamov between the pipes in place of Jose Theodore. The move worked in Game 3 as Washington blanked New York 4-0 but when the Rangers won Game 4, the Capitals were down three games to one and looked dead.
Varlamov came up with another impressive shutout in Game 5 to pull his team a win closer. The Rangers, playing without suspended coach John Tortorella, were no match for the suddenly revived Capitals in Game 6 which led to a deciding Game 7 where Varlamov out-dueled Lundqvist and Sergei Fedorov’s late goal sent Washington into the next round.
The Goaltenders
Pittsburgh is going to ride Fleury unless something unforeseen happens. He loves the work and judging by his 2.39 goals against average and .922 save percentage against the Flyers, he thrives on it. His regular season numbers against the Capitals were horrid (1-3-0 record, 4.73 goals against) so he needs to get the ‘Caps out of his head and focus on stopping them. Mathieu Garon is Fleury’s backup in case anyone wants to know.
Washington found itself a diamond in the rough with Varlamov. His 4-2 record, 1.17 goals against average, .952 save percentage and two shutouts put him in the company of Vancouver’s Roberto Luongo and Boston’s Tim Thomas at the top of the stats. Theodore’s confidence has to be rattled but the veteran could be called upon if the youngster gets into trouble.
The Defense
With the offenses these two teams can put on the ice at any given time, both defenses will be hard pressed to keep the scores down.
Pittsburgh’s best defenseman from an offensive standpoint against Philadelphia was Sergei Gonchar. He tallied one goal and four assists, making him the third leading scorer on the team in the first round. He scored twice20against Washington during the regular season and held his own on the blue line, playing to an even rating versus the Caps. Mark Eaton (2-0-2, plus-3 vs. Flyers) , Kris Letang (0-3-3, even), Brooks Orpik (0-1-1, minus-1), Rob Scuderi (1-0-1, plus-1) and Hal Gill (0-1-1, plus-3) all posted negative ratings against Washington so they will have to do much better if the Pens are to have any chance.
Washington’s defense was just as active as Pittsburgh’s was in the first round. Tom Poti (2-4-6, plus-2) was the fourth leading scorer for the Caps against the Rangers, followed by blue line cohort Mike Green (1-4-5, even). Milan Jurcina, Brian Pothier and John Erskine all contributed points. Against the Penguins in the regular season, none of the Capitals’ defensemen posted a negative rating with Poti’s plus-1 being the worst.
The Offenses
This is where this series gets fun. The firepower between these two rosters is enough to make goalies retire and cause coaches to go insane trying to devise defensive schemes.
Pittsburgh’s arsenal of snipers is led, of course, by Crosby. He put up four goals, including two in the series clincher, and four assists against Philadelphia in the quarterfinals. When Crosby wasn’t lighting the lamp, Malkin (4-5-9) was doing the damage. Late season addition Bill Guerin was the star of Game 2 with his two goals, including the20overtime winner. Tyler Kennedy (2-1-3) and Ruslan Fedotenko (1-2-3) added some scoring beyond the featured stars. Toss in Miroslav Satan, Craig Adams, Maxime Talbot, Chris Kunitz and Matt Cooke among others and the Penguins have the ability to create problems everywhere.
Washington’s cadre of sharpshooters starts with the talented and charismatic Ovechkin. Against the Rangers in the quarterfinals, he tallied three goals and four assists. He got plenty of support from Alexander Semin, who led the Caps with five goals and three assists in the opening series. Nicklas Backstrom (0-7-7) is a proven playmaker and veteran Fedorov (1-3-4) is still as dangerous as he ever was, which was proven by his game winner in Game 7. Viktor Kozlov, Brooks Laich, Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon are all dangerous each and every time they hit the ice.
Keys to the series
Pittsburgh has to improve on its defensive performance from what it did against Washington in the regular season. Negative ratings will not cut it now so the forwards have to back check like crazy and the defensemen need to keep the Capitals’ forwards from free-wheeling in front of Fleury. For his part, Fleury needs to focus on the puck and keep Ovechkin and his posse out of his head.
Washington needs to play that footloose and fancy free offensive game that Ovechkin and Semin love. They already know that they can=2 0keep the Penguins in check so repeating their game plan from the regular season would be helpful. Varlamov hasn’t seen Pittsburgh up close and personal so he needs to play them like he played the Rangers – unphased and unafraid.
Who wins
Despite the fact that the Penguins still have the taste of losing the Cup last year to Detroit in their mouths, they need to prove they can play defense against Washington’s “fun and gun” pinball offense.
Until they do, the Capitals have enough pieces and home ice in the series to win this one in (are you listening Commissioner Bettman?) a seven game shootout that could render the rest of the playoffs moot.
Contact the author at don.money@prohockeynews.com
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