HYANNIS, MA – Given the fluidity of the Federal Hockey League transaction wire throughout the season, predicting the outcome of an impending playoff series is akin to flying a paper airplane in a Nor’easter. However, looking at the post-season brackets, the question begs: does the aforementioned theory apply to the New Jersey Outlaws – Cape Cod Bluefins match-up?
The top seeded Outlaws and sixth-place Bluefins will battle in a best-of-five series that begins Friday night at the Ice Vault in Wayne, New Jersey. After playing the first two games in Wayne, the series will shift to Hyannis for games three and four if necessary. At stake is a direct trip to the FHL Commissioner’s Cup finals.
“You never know what will happen in the playoffs. All the records and stats are old news. It’s a whole new ball of wax,” Cape Cod broadcaster Kenny Gregory said on the eve of the showdown. “Plain and simple, the team that works the hardest has the best chance of coming out on top. New Jersey is a very good squad, no argument there, but we play the games for a reason because you never know.”
On the surface, the Outlaws appear to have a pair of upper hands over the Bluefins in both franchise’s inaugural post-season trip. From a statistical viewpoint, the regular season has proven to be decidedly top heavy toward New Jersey. In eleven head-to-head meetings, Cape Cod managed just one win, a 7-6 shootout victory in late February. The supporting numbers are as equally staggering. The Outlaws outscored the Bluefins 78-28 over the eleven contests, including a pair of games that resulted in 11-2 and 10-2 triumphs for New Jersey.
In the lone Bluefins’ win over New Jersey, forwards Brad Surdam and Andy Hutton collected three points apiece. Surdam (24 goals, 26 assists, 50 points) and Hutton (14-31-45) along with captain Kevin McCready (26-24-50) and center Justin Barr (21-29-50 between Danville and Cape Cod), will be expected to get on the score sheet frequently if the Bluefins are to defy the Outlaws’ previous dominance. Forward David Lun (14-28-42) should also have a big impact on the Cape Cod offense.
Another significant factor for Cape Cod could be the return of blue liner Corey Bellamy, who registered 13 points in 31 games to go along with a team-leading 159 penalty minutes before being loaned to the Elmira Jackals of the ECHL on February 3rd. Bellamy donned the sweater for nine games with Elmira without garnering a point but his physical presence will be at the forefront against the Outlaws.
Between the pipes, Wes Vesprini hung tough through his rookie season. Although he finished with a 5-18-4 record with one shutout, his goals against average of 4.47 in 29 appearances wasn’t that bad. Chris Testa (8-6-0, 1 SO, 3.54 goals against) and Adam Roy will back up the young netminder for the Bluefins.
New Jersey rolled through the regular season looking nothing like an expansion team. They posted FHL records for most wins (39 in regulation plus 3 in overtime/shootouts for a total of 42), points (124) and winning percentage (.795). They scored the most goals (271) and allowed the fewest goals on defense (145).
Offensively, captain Travis Kauffeldt had a career year, posting 44 goals and 56 assists for 100 points to go along with a plus-52 rating. Kevin Cooper wasn’t far behind with 43 goals and 48 assists for 91 points and a plus-52 rating. Veteran Matt Puntureri (20-47-67), Anthony Battaglia (20-41-61), John Goffredo (18-29-47) and Matt Miller (26-13-39) all helped to balance out the high-powered attack.
Defensively, Nathan Oke (14-31-45, plus-30) had his best professional year to date while veteran Lawne Snyder (6-28-34, plus-24) and rookie Dan Mercer (1-14-15, plus-33) handled things on the blue line. Late in the season, the Outlaws picked up veteran defenseman Jeff Winchester from Thousand Islands. On the way to winning the league Most Valuable Player award, Winchester totaled 20 goals and 63 assists for 83 points and posted an eye-popping plus-76 rating. In 12 games with the Outlaws, Winchester collected six goals and 18 assists for 24 points.
Goaltending was never an issue in New Jersey. Dan McWhinney, who moved over to the FHL from the SPHL (as did Kauffeldt, Snyder, Billy McCreary and Trevor Karasiewicz among others), went 24-4-0 with one shutout to go with a 2.60 goals against average and .921 save percentage. Adam Dekker was just as good, going 18-5-1 with four shutouts, a 2.96 goals against average and .915 save percentage.
Given the fact that Cape Cod dressed in excess of 60 players during the regular season, Gregory’s notation and an old stock market adage that past performance is not necessarily a good predictor of the future have plenty of credence. In the case of the Bluefins, they certainly hope they become truisms.
Editor’s Pick: Let’s face it, this series appears to be a big mismatch. The Outlaws have way too much firepower, defense and goaltending for the Bluefins to handle. Still, Cape Cod did hand New Jersey a late-season loss so there is still hope that the Bluefins could catch fire and win. That hope will probably get extinguished in the Ice Vault in the first two games before the teams head for the Cape where the Outlaws finish the series in three.
Contact the author at ken.castro@prohockeynews.com
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